Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Battered Rams lean on Stafford against a big-play-prone Raiders defense
Los Angeles lost Davante Adams, two interior linemen and its kicker in one week, and still opens as the road favorite against a Las Vegas defense that gives up chunk plays almost every week.
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48.5 |
Las Vegas Raiders win 40% of the simulated games, Los Angeles Rams 60%. Median score: Los Angeles Rams 26, Las Vegas Raiders 23. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect a shootout script: the Rams throw early and often, and the Raiders' secondary has struggled to keep receivers in front of it.
- Puka Nacua's calf against the Raiders' pass defense. If he plays, Stafford keeps a top target; if not, the Rams' passing game thins out fast.
- The Rams are 3-point favorites, down from 4 when our feed first saw the game. The Raiders are 5-1 against the spread.
Who is left to catch it
Matthew Stafford carries a strange piece of history into Las Vegas: his next loss would tie Vinny Testaverde for the most by a quarterback in NFL history. The Rams would like to avoid it with fewer weapons than they had a week ago. Davante Adams ruptured a hamstring muscle running a route in the 18-16 loss to Arizona, and McVay put his absence at six to 10 weeks.
That leaves Puka Nacua, who left Thursday's practice early, sat out Friday with a calf injury and is questionable. McVay called it minor and a game-time decision. Nacua has averaged 104.2 receiving yards in four games, so his status matters more than any other on either injury report.
The Rams pass anyway. They rank 3rd in early-down pass rate and 2nd in passing yards at 301.2 per game. The Raiders allow explosive plays (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) on 11.0% of snaps, 31st in the league, and rank 30th in yards per play allowed. Stafford should also have time: the Rams allow sacks on just 3.8% of dropbacks, 5th-best.
A thinned-out Rams front
The Rams' defensive line was already a weak spot before this week. They sack opponents on 4.0% of dropbacks, 27th in the league. Now Kobie Turner and Poona Ford are on injured reserve, and Myles Garrett remains there too; McVay said Friday his practice window could open next week, not this one.
That is a problem against Kirk Cousins, who has thrown 14 touchdowns against 5 interceptions behind a line that allows sacks on 3.5% of dropbacks, 4th-best. Brock Bowers, limited Wednesday, practiced fully Thursday and Friday and has no game designation.
The coverage has been the Rams' strength. They allow 173.8 passing yards per game, 2nd in the league. But Trent McDuffie (groin) did not practice all week and is questionable after sitting out the Arizona game, and linebacker Nate Landman is out with a concussion. Eric Kendricks was elevated from the practice squad.
The Raiders cannot run
Las Vegas has one of the league's least effective ground games. The Raiders rank 30th in rushing yards per game and 29th in EPA per designed run (expected points added: how much each snap moved a team toward points). Ashton Jeanty is averaging 3.2 yards per carry, and Mike Washington Jr., the more efficient back, is questionable with a foot injury after missing two practices.
This is the Rams' opening on defense. They allow 127.0 rushing yards per game, 26th, and the interior losses could make that worse. If Jeanty finds room, the Raiders can keep Stafford on the sideline. If not, Cousins has to carry the offense against the Rams' strongest unit.
Takeaways and a new kicker
The Raiders force 1.7 turnovers per game, 3rd in the league, while the Rams give the ball away 1.5 times per game, 21st. Stafford has thrown 6 interceptions. In a game priced at a field goal, one extra possession could decide the cover.
Kicking matters too. Blake Grupe tore his ACL against Arizona and is out for the season, so the Rams kick with someone new in a game that could come down to a field goal. Their last game was decided by 2 points as 12.5-point favorites.
What the market sees
The Rams are favored by 3 and the total sits at 48.5, unchanged since our feed first saw it. The spread was 4 when our feed first saw it and has moved toward Las Vegas.
The Raiders have been a reliable underdog, covering in 5 of 6 games, including a 30-33 loss to Buffalo as 5.5-point underdogs. Their games went over 4 times in 6. The Rams are 2-4 against the spread. The Raiders score and allow 27.0 points per game, so a total near 50 points fits their season.
Key players
- Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams): Has thrown for 1,794 yards with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions this season, and now works without Adams.
- Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams): Averaging 104.2 receiving yards in four games this season, and questionable with a calf injury.
- Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams): Averaging 4.9 yards per carry this season with 30 catches out of the backfield.
- Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams): Has caught 24 of 29 targets this season and could absorb more looks with Adams out.
- Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas Raiders): Has 14 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions this season while taking only 8 sacks.
- Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders): Averaging 95.5 receiving yards in four games this season, and practiced fully Thursday and Friday.
- Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders): Averaging 3.2 yards per carry this season, though he adds 26 catches as a receiver.
- Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders): Leads Raiders wideouts with 371 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this season.
Numbers that matter
| Raiders explosive plays allowed | 11.0% | 31st in the league, against a Rams offense that ranks 2nd in passing yards. |
|---|---|---|
| Rams defensive sack rate | 4.0% | 27th even before Turner and Ford went to injured reserve. |
| Raiders EPA per designed run | -0.22 | 29th, but the Rams' run defense ranks 26th in yards allowed. |
| Raiders takeaways per game | 1.7 | 3rd in the league, against a Rams offense that ranks 21st in giveaways. |
| Spread | -3 | Rams favored by 3, down from 4 when our feed first saw the game. |
Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders: quick answers
Who is favored in Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders?
Los Angeles Rams is favored by 3 points (Los Angeles Rams -3).
What is the over/under for Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders?
The total is 48.5 points.
When is Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders?
Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.