Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings prediction: Daniel Jones and the Colts' giveaways walk into Minnesota's takeaway machine

Turnovers tell the story

Two numbers explain why a 5-0 team is laying a big number to a 2-4 one. Indianapolis carries the worst turnover margin in football at -1.3 per game. Minnesota carries the best at +1.0.

The Colts give the ball away 1.8 times per game, 27th in the league. The Vikings take it away at that same rate, which ranks 2nd. Something is going to land on the turf or in a defender's hands.

Daniel Jones sits at the center of it. He has thrown six interceptions and lost three fumbles. Last Sunday the Colts led the previously winless Titans 13-0 at halftime and lost 26-20 at home, with Jones throwing two interceptions, one of them in the red zone. Shane Steichen kept him as the starter, and a day after the loss the Colts relieved general manager Chris Ballard of his duties. This is a team in turmoil walking into the league's best defense.

A pass rush waiting for Jones

Minnesota allows -0.21 EPA per dropback, best in the NFL. EPA, expected points added, measures how much each snap moves an offense toward points, and a negative number means the defense is winning. The Vikings also sack the quarterback on 9.5% of opponent dropbacks, another 1st-place mark.

Jones has already been sacked 15 times. The Colts' passing game ranks 28th at -0.14 EPA per dropback, and it lost help this week. Tight end Tyler Warren, who has 30 catches, is out with a groin injury. Receiver Anthony Gould (concussion) is out too, and Alec Pierce stays on injured reserve with his practice window not opening in Week 7. That leaves Josh Downs, Keenan Allen and Laquon Treadwell against a secondary allowing 195.4 passing yards per game, 3rd in the league.

Sustaining drives won't get easier. Opponents convert just 22.2% of third downs against Minnesota, and only 25.0% of red-zone trips end in touchdowns. Both rank 1st.

Where the Colts can punch back

The Colts' best weapon is the ground game. Indianapolis averages 0.06 EPA per designed run, 2nd in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has 492 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

The draw is brutal, though. Minnesota ranks 1st at -0.22 EPA per designed run allowed and gives up 86.6 rushing yards per game.

The Vikings' offense is the reason this spread isn't larger. They rank 32nd in success rate, the share of snaps that keep an offense on schedule, at 35.7%. Their line allows sacks on 8.9% of dropbacks, 28th, and left guard Donovan Jackson is on injured reserve after meniscus surgery. The Colts may struggle to take advantage: their own sack rate ranks 22nd, and defensive end Arden Key has been on IR since Oct. 10.

Minnesota leans on the run, dropping back on 46.3% of early downs, 31st in the league. That aims straight at the Colts' worst weakness, a run defense ranked 32nd in EPA per designed run allowed. Linebacker CJ Allen (ankle) has been ruled out, and fellow linebacker Bryce Boettcher (groin) is questionable. Aaron Jones has 410 rushing yards, and Jordan Mason (thumb) is questionable but expected to play after a four-game absence, pending activation from IR. With cornerback Sauce Gardner out, Cam Taylor-Britt was projected to start in his place as of Oct. 19, a matchup Justin Jefferson can test.

Rest, health and the number

Minnesota comes off its bye with 14 days of rest, and the time healed a lot. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw and tight end T.J. Hockenson cleared the concussion protocol, though Darrisaw sat Friday with a concussion/rest tag. Jordan Addison was cleared, and Jefferson (ankle) moved to full participation Thursday. Kevin O'Connell said everyone beyond Mason is expected to be available.

The Colts also list cornerback Justin Walley (knee) and punter Rigoberto Sanchez (foot) as questionable, and they added a punter as insurance.

The market hasn't budged: Vikings -6.5 and 41.5 since Oct. 20, with Minnesota at -300 on the moneyline. The Vikings are 4-1 against the spread. Their lone miss came as 10-point favorites in a 15-10 win over Miami, a reminder that their offense rarely runs up margins. The Colts have gone over in four of six games, but Minnesota's games keep landing under.