New York Giants vs Houston Texans prediction: J.J. McCarthy's first Giants start comes with the secondary in pieces

McCarthy takes the job

The Giants sit alone atop the NFC East at 3-2-1, and they are changing quarterbacks anyway. John Harbaugh named J.J. McCarthy the starter on Oct. 21 and said the job is his for the foreseeable future. Jaxson Dart is out for the season after knee surgery, and Jameis Winston was pulled in the fourth quarter of last week's loss to New Orleans.

Winston's line explains the switch. He completed 57.0% of his passes and took 15 sacks in five games. McCarthy, acquired from Minnesota for a 2027 fifth-round pick, went 11 of 21 in relief against the Saints. Those throws covered 243 yards, with a touchdown and an interception, and he nearly dragged New York all the way back.

He inherits a dependable top target in Malik Nabers, who averages 82.3 receiving yards per game. Tight end Isaiah Likely leads the team in touchdown catches, and with Theo Johnson ruled out with a neck injury, even more of the middle of the field should run through Likely. The Giants go into their bye after this game, so McCarthy gets two weeks of film and practice to build on whatever happens Sunday.

Stroud gets a thinner secondary

Houston wins through the air. The Texans throw for 285.7 yards per game, 4th in the league, and Stroud has thrown just one interception all season. Nico Collins is his most productive receiver, Jaylin Noel has given the offense a big-play option, Marvin Harrison Jr. made his Texans debut in London, and Tank Dell is questionable for his season debut after full practices Wednesday through Friday.

The Giants' pass defense looks better in yardage than in efficiency. New York allows 198.7 passing yards per game, 4th-fewest, yet ranks 20th in EPA per dropback allowed (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points). Part of that gap may be the run defense, which allows 135.5 rushing yards per game, 29th in the league.

Now the back end is depleted. Holland and Newsome are out with concussions. Safety Tyler Nubin is questionable with a neck injury, and cornerback Paulson Adebo was activated from injured reserve Saturday and is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Without a pass rush to help, that coverage will be exposed: the Giants' defensive sack rate (sacks per opponent dropback) is 3.8%, 30th of 32. Houston will be without tackle Blake Fisher, but Stroud should still get time to find his receivers.

The pressure runs one way

The bigger protection worry belongs to New York. The Giants allow sacks on 7.7% of dropbacks, 25th in the league, and Houston's pass rush gets home on 7.4% of opponent dropbacks, 10th. Tackles Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) and Marcus Mbow (knee) are both questionable. If either sits, McCarthy could inherit the problem that cost Winston his job.

Ball security widens the gap. The Giants give the ball away 1.7 times per game, 25th, while Houston's 0.5 per game ranks 3rd. Neither team runs well enough to hide a mistake: the Texans will lean on Woody Marks with David Montgomery ruled out, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is on injured reserve, so Micah McFadden is expected to start beside rookie Arvell Reese in the middle of the Giants' defense.

A big number for a home team

The price is steep for a team that is 0-3 at home. Houston lost to Cincinnati and Dallas in its own building before winning two straight on the road, the second on Ka'imi Fairbairn's walk-off field goal against Jacksonville in London. The spread has moved toward the Texans since it was first tracked at -10, and the total has slipped to 42.5.

The Giants have been a reliable underdog, going 4-2 against the spread, while Houston has covered only twice. The market is betting that a quarterback change, a battered secondary and a turnover problem outweigh those records.