Cleveland Browns vs Tennessee Titans prediction: Deshaun Watson's sack problem runs into a Titans pass rush that feasts

A pocket that keeps collapsing

Cleveland is 4-2 and alone atop the AFC North. Tennessee is 1-5 and just won for the first time. The standings say this should be comfortable for the visitors, but the Browns have won by defense and survival, and the one thing they have not survived well is a pass rush.

Deshaun Watson has taken 24 sacks this season. Cleveland's sack rate allowed (sacks per dropback) is 10.9%, last in the league. Tennessee's defense brings down opposing quarterbacks at a 7.5% clip, 7th of 32. The Browns' line was rebuilt this offseason, and it lost another starter Saturday when guard Teven Jenkins went on injured reserve with a back injury. Center Elgton Jenkins and tackle Tytus Howard both practiced fully Friday and will play.

The run game offers little relief. Cleveland's EPA per designed run (expected points added: how much each snap moved the team toward points) ranks 31st. Quinshon Judkins is averaging 3.0 yards per carry. If the Browns can't stay ahead of the chains on the ground, Watson is left dropping back into the teeth of this rush.

Cam Ward needs a big play

Tennessee's passing offense is the worst in the league by volume, at 166.3 yards per game. Cam Ward averages 5.6 yards per attempt, and he was 3-19 as a starter before last week's comeback win at Indianapolis, when the Titans scored 20 unanswered second-half points. Brian Daboll now calls the plays, and coach Robert Saleh has said Ward is his starter.

The opening is downfield. Cleveland allows explosive plays (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) at an 11.0% rate, the worst in the NFL. That is the soft spot in a defense that otherwise allows the 5th-fewest points. Carnell Tate, with 344 receiving yards, is the likeliest beneficiary. Calvin Ridley missed Friday's practice with a hip injury and is questionable.

The Browns' own rush is the counterweight. Their 8.2% defensive sack rate ranks 5th, and Mason Graham was cleared to return after missing two games. Ward needs time that Cleveland rarely gives.

Few snaps, fewer touchdowns

This game should move slowly. Tennessee runs the fewest offensive plays in the league, 52.8 per game, and Cleveland ranks 26th. Fewer snaps mean fewer chances to fix a bad drive.

Both offenses stall when it matters. The Browns convert 30.8% of third downs, last in the NFL, and their red-zone touchdown rate ranks 30th. Tennessee is 29th in that red-zone stat. Cleveland's defense, meanwhile, holds opponents to touchdowns on 43.8% of red-zone trips, 5th in the league, which points toward field goals. The kickoff forecast is dry and calm, so weather shouldn't play a part.

Who is in and who is out

Cleveland will be without defensive tackles Mike Hall Jr. and Kalia Davis, along with Teven Jenkins. Backup quarterback Dillon Gabriel is also out. Running back Dylan Sampson was activated off injured reserve Saturday, and Judkins carries no designation. Safety Grant Delpit cleared the concussion protocol. Monken believes he will play through a finger injury but said, "We'll see." Linebacker Quincy Williams (neck) is questionable after practicing at full speed Friday.

Tennessee ruled no one out Friday. Safeties Kevin Winston Jr. and Tony Adams were full participants and are questionable. Tyjae Spears (knee) was limited and is questionable. Linebacker Dorian Mausi practiced Friday but must be activated from injured reserve before he can play. The Titans released defensive tackle Jordan Elliott on Oct. 20 after an incident at the team facility, pushing more snaps to Nazir Stackhouse. Guards Jackson Slater and Fernando Carmona remain on injured reserve.

What the line says

Cleveland is favored by 2 on the road, a small move toward the Browns from 1.5 when our feed first saw the game. The total has slipped to 37.0 from 37.5. The Browns are 4-2 against the spread, and they closed as an underdog in every game from Week 2 through Week 6, so laying points is a new role. The under has hit in four of six Titans games. Tennessee won the last meeting 31-29 in Cleveland last December.