New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins prediction: Drake Maye's thinned-out receiver room gets Miami's last-ranked pass defense

Maye against the worst pass defense

The Patriots are 4-3 and chasing a playoff spot. The Dolphins are 1-5 and just found their first win. What makes this afternoon's AFC East game interesting is how New England's injury list collides with Miami's biggest weakness.

Miami ranks last in the league in EPA per dropback allowed (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points) at 0.31. New England's passing game sits 6th at 0.21 per dropback, with Drake Maye averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Maye came off the injury report Friday with no designation.

The catch is who he throws to. A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) was downgraded to out on Oct. 31 after missing two straight practices. Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are on injured reserve. That leaves DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III as the only healthy wide receivers. Tight end Hunter Henry leads the team with 26 catches for 296 yards, and Douglas has 23 catches.

Miami's defense doesn't create much help for itself. It ranks 31st in sack rate, so Maye should have time even against an injury-patched secondary. Opponents convert 52.1% of third downs against the Dolphins, the second-worst mark in the league.

Willis behind a shaky line

Malik Willis is the reason Miami beat the Jets. His fourth-and-1 sneak in the final two minutes sealed a 28-25 win, and rookie Caleb Douglas caught a 63-yard touchdown. Willis practiced fully Wednesday with a groin issue and did not appear among Friday's designations.

He has been sacked 16 times, though, and Miami's sack rate allowed ranks 27th. Now tackle Kadyn Proctor (concussion) is out. New England's pass rush ranks 12th in sack rate. Coach Jeff Hafley called Willis "basically like a rookie starter" in game experience, and Mike Vrabel knows him well: Vrabel coached the Titans when Tennessee drafted Willis in 2022.

Willis's scrambling is Miami's best counter. He averages 6.4 yards per carry. With De'Von Achane out for the season, Ollie Gordon II carries the backfield at 4.7 yards per carry, but he faces a Patriots run defense that ranks 8th in rushing yards allowed.

Turnovers keep Miami alive

New England's flaw is ball security. The Patriots give the ball away 2.0 times per game, 31st in the league, and Maye has thrown 8 interceptions. Willis has his own problem: he entered the Jets game with seven turnovers in five games.

Miami's defense ranks 29th in takeaways, so the Dolphins may not cash in on mistakes. But a short field is the likeliest way a team scoring 16.3 points per game stays close.

The Patriots' run game won't carry much of the load. They rank 27th in EPA per designed run, and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) is out, leaving Rhamondre Stevenson and his 3.7 yards per carry. The line is patched too: Alijah Vera-Tucker is on injured reserve, Walter Rouse and Matt Pryor have stepped in next to center Jared Wilson, and tackle Marcus Bryant is listed out. Ben Brown returned to full practice with no designation.

Where the line sits

New England is favored by 7, down from 7.5 when our feed first saw the game, and the total has dropped to 43 from 44.5. The Patriots are 3-3-1 against the spread and 1-3 on the road.

Game shape supports the lower total. Miami runs the second-fewest plays in the league, 55.8 per game, and throws on early downs less often than most teams. The kickoff forecast in Miami calls for 78.5 degrees, a 41% chance of rain and gusts near 18 mph.

New England has rest on its side: 10 days since a Thursday loss in Chicago. The Patriots have also won the last two meetings, including a 38-10 rout on Jan. 4.

What to watch

• Whether Henry and Douglas can carry the receiving load without Brown.
• Willis's sack count with Proctor out.
• Carlton Davis III (neck, questionable), who said he expects to play for the first time since Week 4.