Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets prediction: Kirk Cousins' clean pocket tests a Jets pass rush running short
New York wins games by hitting the quarterback, but its edge rushers are thinning out while its own line keeps leaking sacks, and Las Vegas protects as well as almost anyone.
| Spread | New York Jets -1.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 46.5 |
New York Jets win 56% of the simulated games, Las Vegas Raiders 44%. Median score: Las Vegas Raiders 22, New York Jets 24. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- A tight, pass-heavy game where the Raiders throw over a stout Jets run defense and the Jets lean on Braelon Allen against a soft Las Vegas front.
- The Jets' 5th-ranked pass rush, missing Joseph Ossai and likely David Bailey, against a Raiders line that ranks 4th in sack rate allowed.
- Jets -1.5 after the feed first saw -1. The total sits at 46, and every one of the Raiders' last five games went over.
The pressure gap
Both of these teams are sliding, and both quarterbacks enter Sunday's 1:00 PM ET kickoff under pressure. Kirk Cousins keeps the Raiders job after a week of benching talk, with Klint Kubiak saying rookie Fernando Mendoza's time is not this week. Aaron Glenn's Jets need a win to quiet questions about his own standing.
The matchup that decides it is who gets to the quarterback. The Jets bring down opponents on 7.6% of dropbacks (sack rate: sacks per dropback), 5th of 32. Cousins has been one of the hardest quarterbacks to reach: Las Vegas allows a 3.6% sack rate, 4th in the league, and he has gone down 10 times this season.
That Jets rush is getting thinner. Joseph Ossai (ankle) is out, David Bailey (groin) is doubtful after not practicing all week, and defensive tackle T'Vondre Sweat went on injured reserve Saturday. If New York can't win up front with its starters gone, Cousins gets the clean looks he has used all year.
The flip side cuts against the Jets too. Their line allows an 8.9% sack rate, 29th, and Geno Smith has been sacked 21 times. Tackle Max Mitchell (concussion) is out and guard Dylan Parham (knee) is questionable. The Raiders lost a rusher of their own when Patrick Johnson went on injured reserve with a neck stinger.
Las Vegas has to throw
The Raiders can't run. Their EPA per designed run (expected points added: how much each snap moves a team toward points) sits at -0.23, 31st, and Ashton Jeanty is averaging 3.1 yards per carry. The Jets defend the run well, ranking 5th in EPA per designed run allowed.
So it goes through the air. Las Vegas passes for 276.9 yards per game, 5th in the league, though the Jets allow only 202.9, also 5th. Brock Bowers is the hinge: he is averaging 91.0 receiving yards in five games and practiced fully by Thursday after a calf issue. Receiver Jack Bech is questionable as he returns from injured reserve, and Dont'e Thornton has been activated, giving Cousins more targets than he has had in weeks.
Allen against a soft front
The Jets' best path runs the other direction. The Raiders give up 143.6 rushing yards per game, 31st of 32. Braelon Allen, at 4.6 yards per carry, has carried the load while Breece Hall (quadriceps) sat, and Allen practiced fully Thursday and Friday. Hall was limited all week and is questionable.
A run-first plan also shortens the game. The Jets run 57.0 offensive plays per game, 29th, and grinding the clock keeps a Raiders offense that scores 26.1 points per game off the field.
Field goals and turnovers
Neither offense finishes. The Raiders turn 46.4% of red-zone trips into touchdowns, and the Jets are worse at 45.0%, 31st. The Raiders defense is a soft spot near the goal line, allowing touchdowns on 78.6% of opponent red-zone trips.
Las Vegas makes up ground with takeaways, forcing 1.7 per game, 2nd in the league. Smith has thrown just two interceptions, so that strength runs into a careful passer.
What the market says
The Jets were first seen at -1 in our feed and have ticked to -1.5, with the total up from 45.5 to 46. The forecast is calm, near 61 degrees with light wind and no rain.
The Raiders have been a good bet even while losing, going 5-2 against the spread, and their games have gone over five times in seven. The Jets have gone over only three times. The last meeting, in 2023, ended 16-12 Raiders.
- Whether the Jets get pressure without Ossai and Bailey
- Bowers' target share in his first full-practice week
- Allen's carries if Hall sits again
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets line movement and odds
| Book | Raiders ML | Jets ML | Raiders spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 | +1.5 (-108) | o46.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +102 | -129 | +2 (-115) | o46.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +110 | -130 | +1.5 (-108) | o46.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -140 | +2.5 (-120) | o46.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | +110 | -145 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +130 | -166 | +2.5 (+100) | o47.5 (-120) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -140 | +2.5 (-115) | o46.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +107 | -125 | +1.5 (-107) | o46.5 (-112) |
Where the money is on Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets
On the Kalshi moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders: 79% of bets, 48% of the money; New York Jets: 21% of bets, 52% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Jets -1.5: 48% of bets, 85% of the money; Las Vegas Raiders +1.5: 52% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 68% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 46.5: 33% of bets, 22% of the money.
Key players
- Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas Raiders): Has thrown 16 touchdowns against 5 interceptions this season while being sacked just 10 times.
- Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders): Averaging 91.0 receiving yards per game across five games this season.
- Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders): Only 3.1 yards per carry this season, but 34 catches and 3 receiving touchdowns.
- Geno Smith (New York Jets): Completing 70.0% of his passes this season, but sacked 21 times.
- Braelon Allen (New York Jets): Has 418 rushing yards at 4.6 yards per carry this season.
- Garrett Wilson (New York Jets): Leads the Jets' key receivers with 444 yards on 37 catches this season.
Numbers that matter
| Jets sack rate allowed | 8.9% | Ranks 29th, and the line is without Max Mitchell. |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders sack rate allowed | 3.6% | Ranks 4th, against a Jets pass rush missing key bodies. |
| Raiders rushing yards allowed per game | 143.6 | Ranks 31st, the opening for Braelon Allen. |
| Raiders takeaways per game | 1.7 | Ranks 2nd, the Raiders' best equalizer. |
| Jets spread | -1.5 | Moved from -1 since our feed first saw the game. |
Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets: quick answers
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets?
New York Jets is favored by 1.5 points (New York Jets -1.5).
What is the over/under for Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets?
The total is 46.5 points.
When is Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets?
No: Las Vegas Raiders has stayed at +1.5, and the total moved from 45.5 to 46.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders: 79% of bets, 48% of the money; New York Jets: 21% of bets, 52% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: New York Jets -1.5: 48% of bets, 85% of the money; Las Vegas Raiders +1.5: 52% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 68% of bets, 79% of the money; Under 46.5: 33% of bets, 22% of the money.