Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction: Jonathan Taylor runs into Jacksonville's wall, and Daniel Jones must answer

Taylor against the best run defense

Indianapolis has one thing that works. The Colts rank 3rd in EPA per designed run (expected points added: how much each snap moves a team toward scoring), and Jonathan Taylor carries that load with 587 yards and 8 touchdowns. Everything else about this offense depends on him staying on schedule.

Jacksonville is the worst possible opponent for that plan. The Jaguars allow 72.2 rushing yards per game, 1st in the league, and rank 3rd in EPA allowed per designed run. If Taylor's early-down carries go nowhere, the Colts face the down-and-distance they least want to see.

That is where Daniel Jones comes in, and it isn't comforting for Indianapolis. The Colts rank 31st in EPA per dropback. Jones is averaging 5.8 yards per attempt and has thrown 7 interceptions against 4 touchdowns. Steichen confirmed Jones remains the starter as of Oct. 26. There is one opening: Jacksonville allows 283.0 passing yards per game, 30th, so the throws are there if Jones can protect the ball. He has also taken 19 sacks, though the Jaguars' pass rush ranks only 23rd in sack rate (sacks per opponent dropback). Tyler Warren is off the injury report and set to return, a needed target after missing Week 7.

Lawrence against a thin secondary

The other side of the ball looks lopsided. Jacksonville ranks 4th in EPA per dropback, and Trevor Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes against 4 interceptions at 8.0 yards per attempt. Parker Washington leads the receivers with 416 yards.

The Colts' cornerback room is short. Justin Walley (knee) is out, Cam Taylor-Britt went on injured reserve Oct. 27 with a groin injury, and Kapena Gushiken is in line for his first Colts start at nickel. Sauce Gardner is no longer on the injury report after missing Week 7, which helps.

Jacksonville has its own question marks. Jakobi Meyers (hamstring/ankle) missed practice Friday and is listed as questionable. Tackle Anton Harrison is on injured reserve with a torn ACL. Safety Antonio Johnson (ankle) is out, with Kaevon Merriweather expected to start.

Indianapolis's best counter is on third down, where it holds opponents to a 30.0% conversion rate, 4th in the league. Lawrence's offense converts 47.9%, 4th, so those snaps are a strength against a strength.

The turnover gap

This is the number that separates the teams most cleanly. The Colts' turnover margin of -1.3 per game ranks 32nd of 32. Jacksonville's +0.8 ranks 4th. Indianapolis rarely takes the ball away, at 0.4 takeaways per game, 31st, so it has little chance to make up for its own mistakes.

The Week 7 loss at Minnesota showed the problem. Jones threw his seventh interception with the Colts down six and 1:39 left, and Spencer Shrader missed field goals from 56 and 48 yards in the 16-10 defeat. Close games keep slipping away, and Steichen's job security has become a talking point.

Ten points, a bye and history

The market has moved hard one way. Our feed first saw Jacksonville at -7.5. It now sits at -10, with the total unchanged at 46.5.

The schedule backs the move. The Jaguars come off a bye with 14 days of rest and play their first home game since Sept. 27, after losing 34-31 to Houston on a walk-off field goal. They are trying to beat the Colts in Jacksonville for the 12th season in a row, and they won the last meeting there 36-19 in December.

Two things push the other way. Indianapolis is 4-3 against the spread and covered as a 6.5-point underdog at Minnesota. Jacksonville's games have gone under in 4 of 6. The kickoff forecast calls for wind around 12.8 mph with gusts near 20.8, enough to affect deep throws and long kicks.