Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions prediction: Unbeaten Vikings bring the NFL's stingiest defense to Goff's passing machine
Minnesota is 6-0 because almost nobody scores on it, and Detroit's offense, which throws for more yards than anyone, is the hardest test yet.
| Spread | Detroit Lions -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 46 |
Detroit Lions win 62% of the simulated games, Minnesota Vikings 38%. Median score: Minnesota Vikings 20, Detroit Lions 24. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect Detroit to move the ball more than Minnesota's recent opponents but bog down near the goal line, while Murray grinds out short drives.
- Jared Goff against a Vikings pass rush that leads the league with a 10.2% sack rate.
- Detroit is a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 46, unchanged all week; Minnesota's games have gone under five times in six.
Goff against the best defense
Minnesota is the NFL's last unbeaten team, and it got there by smothering people. The Vikings allow 12.3 points per game, best in the league, and rank 1st in defensive EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points). Now they visit the offense built to break that.
Detroit leads the league with 298.0 passing yards per game. Jared Goff has thrown 14 touchdowns without an interception through six games. The Lions rank 3rd in EPA per dropback, and their 10.6% explosive-play rate (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) sits 3rd.
The collision point is the pocket. Minnesota sacks the quarterback on 10.2% of dropbacks, tops in the NFL, and allows -0.22 EPA per dropback, also 1st. Detroit's line has held up reasonably well, allowing a 5.0% sack rate that ranks 11th. If Goff gets clean looks to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, both of whom came off the injury report Friday and are set to play, the Lions' explosive passing should travel. If the rush wins early downs, Detroit's drives stall.
Murray's narrow path
The Vikings' offense is the opposite story. Minnesota ranks 32nd in success rate (the share of snaps that gain enough to stay on schedule) at 35.9%. Kyler Murray is averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and still appears to be acclimating to the team's progression-based passing game, though Kevin O'Connell has stood behind him as the starter.
Protection is the worry. The Vikings allow a 9.1% sack rate, 30th in the league, and Detroit's pass rush ranks 7th at 7.3%. Murray has been sacked 12 times in five games.
The opening is Detroit's secondary. Kelvin Sheppard's defense gives up 313.5 passing yards per game, last in the NFL, and safety Kerby Joseph has been ruled out with a knee injury. Cornerback Roger McCreary is questionable with a foot injury as of Friday's report. That sets up Justin Jefferson, who has 302 yards and three touchdowns in five games. Aaron Jones (knee) practiced fully Friday, carries no game status and is expected to play.
Where drives go to die
Minnesota's defense is at its best when the field shrinks. Opponents score touchdowns on just 23.1% of red-zone trips against the Vikings, the best mark in football, while Detroit converts 70.4% of its own, 5th. Something has to bend there, and it will shape whether the Lions win by field goals or touchdowns.
Third downs tilt toward Minnesota too. Opponents convert only 28.2% against the Vikings, 3rd-best, while Detroit's defense allows 47.7%, 28th. Add a league-best turnover margin of 1.0 per game, and Minnesota has a way to steal possessions from an offense that rarely gives the ball away.
Tempo and the market
Detroit runs 65.8 plays per game, 4th-most, while Minnesota runs 58.5, 26th, and throws on early downs less than any team. The Vikings want a short game; the Lions want a long one.
The market sees Detroit by 3.5, with the total at 46, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game on Oct. 27. The records point opposite ways: Minnesota is 4-2 against the spread with five unders in six games, while Detroit is 1-4-1 against the spread with five overs.
History adds a wrinkle. The Vikings won the last two meetings, including a 27-24 win at Ford Field last season.
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions line movement and odds
| Book | Vikings ML | Lions ML | Vikings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +145 | -185 | +3.5 (-130) | o46.5 (-120) |
| BetRivers | +130 | -165 | +3.5 (-120) | o46.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +145 | -175 | +3.5 (-118) | o45.5 (-115) |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -180 | +3.5 (-120) | o45.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | +125 | -165 | +2.5 (-105) | o47.5 (-115) |
| FanDuel | +118 | -150 | +2.5 (-110) | o46.5 (-130) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +135 | -175 | +2.5 (+100) | o47.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +151 | -179 | — | — |
Where the money is on Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
On the Kalshi moneyline: Minnesota Vikings: 72% of bets, 43% of the money; Detroit Lions: 28% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Detroit Lions -3.5: 52% of bets, 64% of the money; Minnesota Vikings +3.5: 48% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 53% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 45.5: 47% of bets, 20% of the money.
Key players
- Kyler Murray (Minnesota Vikings): Murray has 812 passing yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in five games this season, and has been sacked 12 times.
- Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings): Jefferson has 302 receiving yards and three touchdowns in five games this season, facing a pass defense that ranks last in yards allowed.
- Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings): Jones has 436 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry this season and was a full participant Friday after a knee injury.
- T.J. Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings): Hockenson leads Minnesota with 27 catches this season, a short-area outlet against a heavy pass rush.
- Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): Goff has thrown 14 touchdowns and no interceptions this season while averaging 298.0 passing yards per game.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions): Gibbs has 620 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns this season and came off the injury report Friday.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions): St. Brown has 525 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 68 targets this season and is set to play after an ankle scare.
- Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions): Williams has 367 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season, Detroit's best bet for a deep shot.
Numbers that matter
| Vikings defensive sack rate | 10.2% | Best in the NFL, and the main threat to Detroit's top-ranked passing attack. |
|---|---|---|
| Lions passing yards allowed per game | 313.5 | Last in the league, with safety Kerby Joseph ruled out. |
| Vikings opponent red-zone TD % | 23.1% | Tops in the NFL against a Detroit offense that scores touchdowns on 70.4% of trips. |
| Vikings offensive success rate | 35.9% | Ranks 32nd, which is why Minnesota's games keep landing under the total. |
| Spread | -3.5 | Detroit's number has not moved since our feed first recorded it on Oct. 27. |
Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions: quick answers
Who is favored in Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions?
Detroit Lions is favored by 3.5 points (Detroit Lions -3.5).
What is the over/under for Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions?
The total is 46 points.
When is Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions?
Sunday, November 1, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions?
No: Minnesota Vikings has stayed at +3.5, and the total moved from 45.5 to 46.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Minnesota Vikings: 72% of bets, 43% of the money; Detroit Lions: 28% of bets, 57% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Detroit Lions -3.5: 52% of bets, 64% of the money; Minnesota Vikings +3.5: 48% of bets, 36% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 53% of bets, 80% of the money; Under 45.5: 47% of bets, 20% of the money.