Western Michigan Broncos vs Central Michigan Chippewas prediction: Western Michigan's ground game takes aim at Central Michigan's broken front

Where Central Michigan breaks

Western Michigan arrives as the defending MAC champion, unbeaten in league play and careful with the football. Central Michigan has a rushing attack that ranks 42nd nationally in rushing yards per game. Its defence, though, has a hole in the middle that the Broncos are built to find.

The Chippewas rank last in FBS in line yards allowed per carry at 3.62. That stat measures how much ground a defensive front gives up before a runner reaches the second level. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 122nd. The box scores show it: CMU allows 178.0 rushing yards per game, 113th nationally. Opponents convert 50.6% of third downs against them, 135th.

Western Michigan doesn't need to be special to exploit that. Its rushing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 52nd. Jalen Buckley is coming off 105 yards on 16 carries against Kent State. Broc Lowry has added 108 rushing yards over the last three games.

The recent trend is worse for the Chippewas. Against Miami, Akron and Ohio, they allowed 0.398 EPA per play. Opponents posted a 53.6% success rate, which is the share of plays that keep an offence on schedule. Ohio led 31-0 at halftime last week, and Matt Drinkall called the performance "uncharacteristic" in all three phases.

Flores carries everything

Central Michigan's offence runs through Angel Flores' legs. He has 501 rushing yards against 313 passing yards this season. As a team, CMU's passing EPA ranks 131st at -0.061, so the average Chippewa pass play actually loses expected points.

The run game is real. CMU ranks 28th in line yards per carry and 48th in rushing EPA. Flores ran for 154 yards against Akron, and Jayden Clerveaux averages 5.8 yards per carry.

The trouble starts when the run stalls. CMU converts 36.4% of third downs, 98th, and allows 2.33 sacks per game. Flores took four sacks at Ohio and was stripped in the first half. Western Michigan's front isn't fearsome against the run, ranking 88th in line yards allowed. Its strength sits behind the front: the Broncos rank 16th in explosiveness allowed, which measures how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. CMU will have to string together long drives without a passing game to bail it out.

Hidden yards favour the Broncos

Western Michigan turns the ball over 0.33 times per game, fourth in the country. Central Michigan gives it away 1.67 times per game, 110th. The Chippewas' best counterpunch is their ball-hawking defence, which forces 1.83 takeaways per game, 16th nationally.

Field position tilts the same way. Broncos opponents start their average drive at the 24.3, sixth best in FBS. Chippewa opponents start at the 31.9, which ranks 129th. CMU has also made just 85.7% of its extra points, 135th. In a rivalry that has repeatedly come down to one score, those yards and points add up.

Read the records carefully

Western Michigan's FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of -5.5. Central Michigan's sit at -0.6, so the Chippewas have faced the tougher slate. That slate included a 52-3 loss at Miami.

The Broncos have won without dominating. They beat Buffalo 20-17 as favourites and failed to cover. They also lost 32-7 at home to Boise State, when Lowry threw for 110 yards. Their 38-7 win over Kent State was the cleanest showing of the year, with Lowry throwing three touchdowns.

Recent meetings have been tight. Western Michigan won 24-21 last year. The year before, Central Michigan won 16-14 in Mount Pleasant.