UTEP Miners vs North Dakota State prediction: UTEP's broken pocket faces North Dakota State's suffocating Bison defense

Eleven sacks and counting

North Dakota State's defense allows 12.5 points per game, third in FBS. UTEP has averaged 10.3 points over its last three games and may not know who its quarterback is until kickoff. The Bison are 24-point favorites at the Fargodome on Halloween. The real question is whether their own banged-up offense can do enough to clear that number.

The Miners can't keep anyone clean. UTEP allows 4.86 sacks per game, 138th of 138. Its havoc allowed rate is 22.1%, ranked 137th. Havoc counts the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. The low point came last time out, when San Jose State sacked UTEP quarterbacks 11 times in a 24-11 loss.

Now that line faces a defense ranked second in passing EPA allowed. EPA is expected points added per play, so a low number means opposing passers get nowhere. The Bison spread their disruption around: Kelton McCaslin has 5.0 sacks, and Gavin Sell has 10.0 tackles for loss. UTEP's third-down conversion rate tells you where this leads. It converts 24.7%, the worst in the country.

Two quarterbacks, two questions

UTEP's EJ Colson is day-to-day with a hand injury. Scotty Walden gave that update Oct. 27. Colson came back from a concussion against San Jose State and left with the hand problem. If he can't go, running back Raymond Moore III starts at quarterback, and our projection already assumes Moore takes the snaps. Moore has run for 6.2 yards per carry this season. That number fell to 2.9 in the San Jose State game, and UTEP is projected for just 128 passing yards.

North Dakota State has its own worry. Nathan Hayes sprained his ankle in the first quarter at New Mexico, returned heavily taped, and threw a pick-six in the 21-16 loss. "Nathan's questionable right now," Tim Polasek said Tuesday. "So he might make it. I'm not sure." Polasek said Preston Brown and Trey Drake need to be ready. Even healthy, Hayes has been shaky: 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over his last three games.

The line in front of him is thinning too. Left guard Griffin Empey is out, and left tackle Ryan Babatz is questionable with an ankle injury. Noah Stommes would start if Babatz can't.

Where the Bison must run

The obvious plan for North Dakota State is to run the ball and protect whichever quarterback starts. UTEP allows 193.4 rushing yards per game, 126th in FBS, and our projection has the Bison running for 220.

The catch is that the Bison ground game hasn't been efficient. Their rushing EPA ranks 111th. Their line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the offensive line creates, sit 91st at 2.94. Myles Mitchell has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over the last three games, and now the Bison are missing a starting guard.

The run game still decides the spread. In tested games, when the favorite covered, its rushing went over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. If the Bison cover, it will most likely be on the ground.

Drives that end in nothing

UTEP's few good drives rarely pay off. The Miners score 1.55 points per scoring opportunity, which ranks 138th. Their kicker has made 3 of 8 field goals. The Bison allow 1.84 points per opportunity, best in FBS, so even a UTEP drive into plus territory is likely to end empty.

The Miners do have one thing going for them: they rank 22nd in explosiveness, the average value of their successful plays. A busted run by Moore is the most plausible path to a backdoor touchdown.

Pricing a 24-point spread

The line opened at North Dakota State by 24 and hasn't moved, with the total at 42.5. UTEP is 1-6 against the spread and failed to cover in each of its last four games. It does come in with 14 days of rest against the Bison's 7.

Schedule context cuts against the Bison. Their FBS opponents average a -5.1 SP+ rating, while UTEP's average 3.9. North Dakota State's offense also stalled in a 7-13 loss at UNLV as a favorite. With Hayes and two linemen in doubt, the Bison's ability to stack points is the swing factor, not their defense.

Our model sets the fair line at North Dakota State by 24.66 and the total at 42.66, essentially the market's numbers. It gives the Bison a 94% win probability. For the first half, our fair spread is Bison by 12.5 with a fair total of 22.35.