Missouri Tigers vs Arkansas Razorbacks prediction: Jamal Roberts and Missouri's run game face Arkansas's soft run defense

No ground to give

Arkansas ended a 14-game SEC losing streak two weeks ago at Vanderbilt. Its reward is the team that has owned this rivalry, a Missouri side rested off a bye with a running back built to punish exactly what the Razorbacks do worst.

Arkansas allows 0.184 EPA per rush (expected points added per play), 127th of 138 nationally. Its front gives up 3.11 line yards per carry, a measure of how far runners get before the second level, and that ranks 105th. It also stuffs runners at or behind the line on just 15.7% of carries, 113th in the country.

Jamal Roberts should find room. He ran for 211 yards against Florida and 222 against Texas A&M. Ole Miss held him to 39 in Missouri's last game, a reminder that the Tigers' own line is no strength: its 2.82 line yards per carry ranks 110th. Much of Missouri's rushing value comes from what Roberts does once he clears the first wave. Arkansas tackles poorly enough that he may clear it often.

Our projection has Missouri running for 175 yards. That matters for anyone pairing a Missouri spread with its rushing: in our testing, a favorite covering and its rushing going over move together. Behind Roberts, Ahmad Hardy practiced fully this week for the first time since being shot in the left thigh in May, but Eli Drinkwitz said it is too early to set a timeline for his return.

KJ Jackson under pressure

The other trench battle tilts the same way. Arkansas allows havoc, plays with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, on 17.6% of snaps, 122nd nationally. It gives up 2.29 sacks per game, 100th.

Missouri's defense creates havoc on 19.5% of plays, 16th in the country. Daeden Hopkins has 7 sacks this season, though only half a sack in his last three games. Donta Simpson has picked up the slack with 2.5 sacks over that stretch.

Jackson averaged 6.2 yards per attempt over his last three games, with his best outing coming against Vanderbilt. His top target, Chris Marshall, leads Arkansas with 601 receiving yards but hurt his right hamstring early in the Vanderbilt game. Ryan Silverfield said he hopes Marshall returns, and his status is unconfirmed. Without him, an Arkansas offense that ranks 133rd in explosiveness has little chance to hit the big plays Missouri sometimes allows.

Missouri's finishing problem

The best case for Arkansas lives inside its own 20. Missouri converts just 50% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns, near the bottom nationally. It averages 3.53 points per scoring opportunity, 91st. That flaw showed up in a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss, and Austin Simmons said the bye-week focus was playing clean football.

The matchup could hide it. Arkansas allows 4.79 points per opportunity, 137th of 138, so drives that reach scoring range against this defense usually end in points. Missouri also starts drives at its own 33.0-yard line on average, 9th nationally, which shortens the field before Roberts touches the ball.

Rivalry, rest and the number

Missouri has won nine of the past 10 meetings, including a 31-17 win in Fayetteville last season. This is Silverfield's first Battle Line game as Arkansas coach, and both teams come off a bye for a Saturday night kickoff.

Arkansas's 3-4 record came against a tougher slate: its FBS opponents average an SP+ rating of 11.5. It covered as an underdog against Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The line opened at Arkansas +9.5 and has moved to +10 toward Missouri. Our model sits a little further out at Missouri by 10.83, projecting a 30.0 to 19.2 final. That agrees with the market's lean toward Missouri rather than offering a real disagreement.