Ohio State Buckeyes vs USC Trojans prediction: Ohio State hides its quarterback before testing USC's broken pass defense

The quarterback nobody will name

The Buckeyes spent two weeks off getting ready for a Halloween night trip to the Coliseum, and they still won't say who takes the first snap. Julian Sayin was hurt on a fourth-quarter sack in the 19-15 win at Indiana, and Ryan Day has called him out indefinitely. Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair are still competing for the job. Day declined to name a starter Wednesday, saying both "will be ready to play."

That is a big piece to lose. Sayin ran a passing attack that ranks 3rd of 138 in EPA per play (expected points added per play). He threw 19 touchdowns against four interceptions. The final Big Ten availability reports come out two hours before kickoff, so the market may move again before then.

A secondary built to be tested

Ohio State caught a break in who it plays first without Sayin. USC ranks 119th in passing EPA allowed and 99th in explosiveness allowed, which measures how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. The Trojans also finish drives poorly on defense. They give up 4.14 points per scoring opportunity, 119th nationally.

They don't create chaos either. USC's havoc rate (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) is 12.8%, 123rd in the country. A first-time starter facing that defense won't see many free rushers or jumped routes.

The job is simple to state: find Jeremiah Smith. He has 984 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, and he went for 206 yards at Iowa. Brandon Inniss is questionable, which could make the passing game even more about Smith. Without Ja'Kobi Jackson, who is out after Lisfranc surgery, Bo Jackson becomes the lead back. He averages 4.8 yards per carry, but he managed just 3.1 against Indiana behind a line ranked 82nd in line yards (the rushing yards credited to blockers).

USC has nowhere to run

USC's offense is coming off its worst night under Lincoln Riley. The Trojans scored seven points at Wisconsin, the fewest ever by a Riley-coached team, and finished with -17 rushing yards. King Miller carried 11 times for 8 yards. This week's opponent is worse news: Ohio State ranks 6th in rushing EPA allowed and 16th in line yards allowed.

That puts the game on Jayden Maiava, and his recent form is shaky. He has averaged 6.9 yards per attempt over his last three games, down from 8.4 for the season. He threw two interceptions at Wisconsin.

USC's best path is staying on schedule. The Trojans convert 50.5% of third downs, 14th nationally, while Ohio State's defense ranks 74th on third down. The Buckeyes don't get home often, averaging 1.43 sacks per game (110th), and USC protects well, ranking 16th in havoc allowed. Clean pockets could keep Maiava alive. Still, Ohio State allows just 13.4 points per game, 4th in the country, and the Trojans have to string together long drives against it.

Field position and a shaky kicker

Ohio State wins on hidden yards. Its opponents start drives at their own 24.3-yard line on average, 2nd best in the country. USC's kicking makes long drives that stall even more costly. The Trojans have made 7 of 11 field goals, 113th by percentage.

USC's punter is a weapon, though, at 47.2 net yards per punt, 3rd nationally. On a night when points could be scarce, that may be the Trojans' best way to make a backup quarterback drive the length of the field. Ohio State also comes in on 14 days of rest, compared with seven for USC.

What the market and our model see

The line opened at Ohio State -7 and has slipped to -6.5 across 27 books. That movement is toward a USC team that is 2-6 against the spread this season. Ohio State is 5-2.

Our model makes the Buckeyes a 7.6-point favorite, about a point more than the market. Its total matches the 51.5 on the board, with a projected 29.5-22 score. It gives USC a 32% chance to win at home.

The stakes are high for USC. A loss ends its Big Ten title-game hopes and adds to the scrutiny on Riley, who has insisted USC is where he wants to be.