Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Iowa State Cyclones prediction: Mestemaker's 300-yard streak heads to a short-handed Iowa State front
Oklahoma State's quarterback has been nearly flawless for a month, and the Cyclones are missing three defensive linemen and a cornerback when they need a pass rush most.
| Spread | Oklahoma State -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 58 |
- Oklahoma State moves the ball through the air while Iowa State's offense stalls on third down, unless Cowboy turnovers keep the Cyclones close.
- Drew Mestemaker against an Iowa State pass rush that ranks 110th in sacks and is missing two starting-caliber linemen.
- Our fair line has Iowa State +9.4 and a 58 total, essentially the market's number, with Iowa State at 28% to win.
A Quarterback in Full Flight
Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 300 yards in six straight games, and the defense waiting for him on Halloween night in Ames is held together with tape. Oklahoma State, No. 24 in the AP poll, is chasing its first bowl trip in three seasons and a place in the Big 12 title race. Iowa State is coming off a 39-3 loss at Arizona and is still sorting out who it is.
Mestemaker's last three games produced 1,055 passing yards with nine touchdowns and one interception. The Cowboys rank 2nd of 138 in passing yards per game, and their passing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 15th. Iowa State's pass defense ranks 95th in that same measure.
The Cyclones' usual answer would be pressure, and they don't have much. They rank 110th with 1.43 sacks per game, and DE Caden Crawford and DT Ka'Mori Moore are out, with DE Trey Verdon and DT Bryson Lamb questionable. CB Beni Ngoyi is also out. Meanwhile Oklahoma State's line allows havoc (tackles for loss, sacks, fumbles, picks and breakups) on just 11.3% of plays, 13th nationally. Mestemaker should have time to find Wyatt Young and Justin Bowick, who have 13 touchdown catches between them.
One wrinkle: TE Carson Kolb is out, and starting LG Johnny Dickson left the Colorado game hurt but was not on the availability report.
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Iowa State Cyclones: quick answers
Who is favored in Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Iowa State Cyclones?
Oklahoma State is favored by 9.5 points (Oklahoma State -9.5).
What is the over/under for Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Iowa State Cyclones?
The total is 58 points.
When is Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Iowa State Cyclones?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.