Clemson Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles prediction: Ashton Daniels carries Florida State's ground game with Kromah sidelined
Florida State's run game should push around a soft Clemson front, but its leading rusher is out and its quarterback will have to carry more of the load.
| Spread | Florida State -6 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 49.5 |
- Florida State, rested off a bye, should run on Clemson's soft front while a punchless Tigers offense struggles to keep pace.
- Ashton Daniels and the Seminoles' run game against a Clemson run defense ranked 94th in rushing EPA allowed.
- Our number makes Florida State a 6.69-point favorite, barely more than the market's 6.
Daniels becomes the run game
This rivalry used to decide ACC titles. Now Clemson arrives 4-3 and Florida State 3-4, both unranked, and the Seminoles are favored by 6 at home. They will be without their leading rusher. Ousmane Kromah, who has 609 yards on 114 carries, is listed out on the initial injury report.
That puts more of the ground game on Ashton Daniels. He already has 11 rushing touchdowns, five of them in a rout of Virginia. Tre Wisner is the next back up at 5.4 yards per carry, and he doubles as a receiver.
The matchup favors Florida State even without Kromah. The Seminoles rank 17th of 138 in line yards per carry (a measure of how much push the offensive line creates) and 22nd in rushing EPA, or expected points added per play. Clemson's run defense ranks 94th in rushing EPA allowed and 98th in line yards allowed. Our projection has Florida State running for 211 yards.
Clemson's offense has no gear
The Tigers rank 131st in yards per play at 4.85 and 133rd in passing EPA. Tait Reynolds has the job full-time, but he has one touchdown pass in seven games and averages 6.1 yards per attempt. Clemson converts 31.7% of its third downs, 126th nationally. It also scores just 2.69 points per scoring opportunity, 128th, so even its good drives stall.
This is still the best chance Clemson has had to get the offense going. Florida State allows 6.34 yards per play, 123rd, and ranks 121st in explosiveness allowed, meaning the big plays it gives up are very big. Bryant Wesco Jr. showed what he can do with 152 yards against Miami. Since then he has managed 63 yards across two games.
It is not clear whether Dabo Swinney will change his offensive staff. Nothing has been announced, so Chad Morris's group gets this game to show something.
Two pass rushes, two shaky lines
Both defenses get after the quarterback, and both offensive lines struggle to stop it. Clemson averages 2.86 sacks a game, 13th nationally. Florida State allows 2.57, 114th. Will Heldt leads the Tigers with 6 sacks, two of them against Virginia Tech.
The other side of the ball looks even worse for Clemson. Rylan Kennedy has 6 sacks for Florida State, 4 of them in his last three games. He now faces a line that allows 3.0 sacks per game, 129th. Clemson's havoc allowed rate is 17.9%, 126th; havoc is the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup. Reynolds can't afford many drives that start in a hole.
Clemson's pass defense has been its strength, ranking 18th in passing EPA allowed. It now plays without cornerback Corian Gipson, who is out for the season. Florida State gets freshman receiver Devin Carter for his debut. Norvell called cornerback Jordan Crutchfield "trending well," but said "Blake probably won't be available this week," meaning linebacker Blake Nichelson.
Rest, the line and our number
Florida State comes in with 14 days of rest after a double-overtime 35-43 loss to Miami, in which Daniels threw four touchdowns. Clemson has a normal week after losing 20-16 at home to Virginia Tech as a 3-point favorite. The Tigers are 2-5 against the spread this season.
The line opened at Florida State -5.5 and has moved to -6 across 26 books, with the total at 49.5. Our model lands close to the market: Florida State by 6.69, a 49.63 total and a 66% chance the Seminoles win. For the first half, it makes Florida State a 3.36-point favorite.
One tested pattern fits this game. When the favorite covers, the favorite's rushing total tends to go over as well. If Florida State covers, it will most likely be because Daniels and Wisner ran through the Clemson front.
Key players
- Tait Reynolds (Clemson): He has one touchdown pass and 3 interceptions in seven games, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt.
- Bryant Wesco Jr. (Clemson): His 152-yard game against Miami shows the big-play ability Clemson's passing game has rarely used.
- Will Heldt (Clemson): He leads Clemson with 6 sacks, two of them against Virginia Tech last week.
- Gideon Davidson (Clemson): He averages 5.3 yards per carry with 5 touchdowns on the season.
- Ashton Daniels (Florida State): He has 11 rushing touchdowns and 8.9 yards per attempt, and he carries more of the load with Kromah out.
- Tre Wisner (Florida State): Next up behind Kromah, he averages 5.4 yards per carry and has 135 receiving yards over his last three games.
- Rylan Kennedy (Florida State): He has 4 sacks in his last three games against a Clemson line that ranks 129th in sacks allowed.
- Duce Robinson (Florida State): He leads the team with 407 receiving yards, including 113 against Miami, but his health is unconfirmed.
Numbers that matter
| Clemson passing EPA rank | 133rd | One of the least productive passing games in the country faces a Florida State pass defense ranked 124th in yards allowed. |
|---|---|---|
| FSU line yards per carry | 3.41 | That ranks 17th nationally, against a Clemson front that is 98th in line yards allowed. |
| Clemson sacks allowed per game | 3.0 | That ranks 129th, and Florida State's Rylan Kennedy is hot off the edge. |
| Rest days, FSU | 14 | Florida State is coming off a bye, while Clemson has a normal week. |
| Our fair spread | -6.69 | Our number is barely more favorable to Florida State than the market's -6. |
Clemson Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles: quick answers
Who is favored in Clemson Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles?
Florida State is favored by 6 points (Florida State -6).
What is the over/under for Clemson Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles?
The total is 49.5 points.
When is Clemson Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.