Washington Huskies vs Nebraska Cornhuskers prediction: Nebraska's pass rush hunts a Washington offense with no named quarterback

Throwing into the teeth

Washington's offense lives through the air. The Huskies rank 21st nationally in passing yards per game and 130th of 138 in rushing yards. That profile works against most defenses. Nebraska's is not most defenses: it ranks 4th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, here a measure of how much damage opponents do through the air) and 19th in sacks per game.

The protection is the worry. Washington allows 3.14 sacks per game, 131st in the country, and it plays without center Landen Hatchett, who is out for the season with a neck and spine injury. Nebraska expects defensive lineman Riley Van Poppel back from a back injury; he is listed probable after missing two games. The Huskers will be without safety Jamir Conn and defensive lineman Anthony Jones Jr.

Nobody outside the building knows who takes the snaps. Demond Williams Jr. hurt his ribs against Iowa, missed the Purdue game and is listed questionable, and Jedd Fisch says the starter will be decided at game time. Elijah Brown filled in at Purdue and threw for a career-high 302 yards and three touchdowns. Washington won that game 38-26. Williams averages 8.0 yards per attempt this season, and either quarterback has two reliable targets in Dezmen Roebuck and Chris Lawson.

Nebraska's run game hits a wall

Nebraska wants the opposite kind of game. The Huskers rank 7th in rushing EPA and average 194.4 rushing yards per game, with Anthony Colandrea a real threat on the ground.

Washington's front is the best unit on the field. Its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 27.1%, 5th in the country. It ranks 13th in line yards allowed per carry, which measures how much push opposing blockers get. Washington will miss edge rusher Ramzak Fruean, who is out with a knee injury, but the interior has carried this defense.

Nebraska's backs have already felt a squeeze. Jamal Rule averages 6.5 yards per carry on the season but just 2.8 over his last three games. Running back Isaiah Mozee is probable and has practiced. If the ground game stalls again, the game lands on Colandrea's arm.

Form that cuts both ways

The season numbers flatter Washington's defense. It allowed -0.019 EPA per play across the year, a top-25 mark, but 0.199 over its last three games against USC, Iowa and Purdue. Those three opponents averaged 30.7 points.

Nebraska's offense cooled too, from 0.247 EPA per play on the season to 0.039 over its last three. The schedule explains much of that. Two of those games came against Indiana (6th in SP+) and Oregon (12th), and Nebraska lost both by a combined six points. Oregon needed a touchdown and 2-point try in the final 28 seconds to win. Both teams come in off a bye.

Third downs and missed kicks

Nebraska's defense allows a 19.3% third-down conversion rate, the best in the country. Washington converts just 33.3% of its own, 120th. Drives that bog down against this defense rarely get a second chance.

Nebraska's weak spot is the kicking game. The Huskers have made only 4 of 8 field-goal tries, so a stalled drive in plus territory is no sure three points. Washington counters with a punter averaging 47.9 yards, 8th nationally, who can push a Nebraska offense back toward its own end zone.

The market and our number

The line opened at Nebraska -9.5 and has moved to -7.5, toward Washington. Nebraska has not lost against the spread this season, going 6-0-1. Washington is 2-5.

Our model sides with the opener, making Nebraska a 9.8-point favorite with a 73% win probability. On the 49.5 total, our number lands almost exactly on the market.