Texas State Bobcats vs Boise State Broncos prediction: Texas State moves the ball, but Boise State finishes drives

Drives that stall short

Boise State is No. 20, unbeaten in the Pac-12 and in the driver's seat for a College Football Playoff spot. On Halloween night it also unveils a bronze statue of Kellen Moore at halftime. Texas State arrives with an offense that keeps drives alive better than almost anyone, and with a coach whose name is circulating for the Baylor job. The spread may come down to one question: when the Bobcats get close, do they score touchdowns?

Texas State converts 55.5% of its third downs, 2nd in FBS. Its success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) of 50.0% ranks 10th. The trouble starts near the goal line. The Bobcats score 3.63 points per scoring opportunity, which ranks 86th. Their kicking compounds it: they have made just 7 of 14 field goals. That 50.0% rate ranks 132nd.

Boise State is built the other way. The Broncos score 4.5 points per opportunity, 22nd nationally, and have made 10 of 11 field goals. Their defense tightens in the same spots, allowing 2.95 points per opportunity (27th) and a 29.1% third-down rate (8th). Texas State's own defense gives up 3.96 points per trip, 109th. Last week showed the risk: as a 14-point home favorite against Utah State, the Bobcats needed a late Jacob Bonilla field goal to win 20-17.

Two ground games collide

This is a game between two of the best rushing offenses in the country. Texas State runs for 272.0 yards per game (5th) and Boise State for 237.9 (7th). Both fronts also stuff runs at or behind the line well. Boise's stuff rate of 26.1% ranks 7th, and Texas State's 24.3% ranks 13th.

The crack is in Boise's run defense after first contact. The Broncos allow 0.097 rushing EPA (expected points added per play), which ranks 93rd, so the runs that get through do damage. Brad Jackson is the swing factor. He ran for 181 yards and three scores against Colorado State, then just 15 against Utah State. Torrance Burgess Jr. averages 7.5 yards per carry and is listed as probable after leaving the Utah State game in the second half; the cause was not confirmed. Davian Jackson is cleared after missing two games.

Boise's backfield is less certain. Sire Gaines is questionable after wearing a walking boot following the Washington State game, and left guard Carson Rasmussen is out for a fourth straight game. Dylan Riley has carried the load anyway, with 371 yards and five touchdowns over his last three games.

Madsen against a soft secondary

Maddux Madsen has thrown 14 touchdowns without an interception. He now faces a Texas State pass defense that allows 284.9 yards per game, 137th in FBS, and 0.274 passing EPA per play (107th). The Bobcats barely touch quarterbacks, averaging 1.0 sack per game (131st). They also rarely take the ball away, with 0.71 takeaways per game (126th). Boise gives the ball away just 0.43 times per game, 3rd nationally, so Texas State's usual path to an upset is narrow. Receiver Ben Ford and tight end Austin Terry are both questionable.

The Bobcats' counterpunch is the big play. Boise's defense ranks last in FBS in explosiveness allowed at 1.56. Explosiveness here means the average EPA on successful plays, so when the Broncos break, they break badly. Jackson averages 8.3 yards per attempt, and Beau Sparks caught 10 passes for 153 yards at San Diego State. Boise's pass rush has the means to cut that off: it averages 2.57 sacks per game (25th), and Lopez Sanusi has 3 sacks in his last three games.

Hidden yards and Baylor noise

Field position tilts toward Boise State. Texas State's gross punting average of 35.3 yards ranks last in FBS, and its kick coverage allows 29.6 yards per return (133rd). Boise's offense hasn't had much help from field position this season. Its offense starts drives at the 24.9-yard line on average, 135th. Texas State does carry a return threat: Jaylen Jenkins earned Pac-12 Special Teams Player of the Week after taking an opening kickoff back 100 yards for a touchdown.

The off-field story belongs to G.J. Kinne. Baylor fired Dave Aranda last week, and Kinne's name has surfaced as a candidate. On Tuesday he said he is focused only on Boise State. "I love this place," he said.

Where our number lands

The market opened at Boise State -10.5 and has not moved, with the total at 63.5. Our model sits 2.0 points higher on the Broncos at -12.49. It projects a 38.2-25.8 final and gives Boise a 78.0% chance to win. Its fair total of 63.98 is close to the market. Boise's projection of 196 rushing yards fits the game script: when favorites cover, their rushing tends to go over its line. Texas State's form also deserves a discount. Its last three opponents rank 104th, 105th and 106th in SP+.