Utah Utes vs Cincinnati Bearcats prediction: Cole Tabb's big-play legs test unbeaten Utah's one soft spot

Utah bends, Cincinnati breaks big

Utah's 13-game winning streak rests on a defense that keeps opponents behind schedule. Its success rate allowed, the share of opponent plays that keep an offense on track, is 34.6%, 14th nationally. The Utes also give up just 88.3 rushing yards per game, 8th.

The weakness shows on the snaps they lose. Utah ranks 122nd in explosiveness allowed, a measure of how much damage opponents do on their successful plays.

That is exactly where Cincinnati lives. The Bearcats rank 9th in explosiveness and 4th in rushing EPA (expected points added per play). Cole Tabb drives it, averaging 9.6 yards per carry. He ran for a career-high 173 yards in the upset of Texas Tech, including a 58-yard touchdown. If Utah keeps Cincinnati in long down-and-distance, the Utes pull away. If Tabb breaks two long runs, this stays a one-score game deep into the second half.

Utah runs into soft ground

Cincinnati's defense is the weakest unit on the field. It ranks 111th in line yards allowed per carry, a measure of the push an offensive line gets on running plays. It ranks 122nd in points allowed per scoring opportunity, so drives that cross midfield tend to end in touchdowns.

Utah's rushing EPA ranks 5th, and Devon Dampier is a big part of it. He ran for 150 yards and two scores against Houston. Wayshawn Parker has 644 yards this season, though he has slowed to 98 and 47 in his last two games.

Both lines have holes. Utah is without freshman left guard Kelvin Obot, who was hurt early against Colorado and missed Houston. Morgan Scalley said he is "still unavailable, but progressing." Cincinnati nose tackle Josh Hough missed the Texas Tech game, and his status for Saturday is unconfirmed.

Dampier's interception habit

Dampier's one blemish is recent. He has 6 interceptions this season, and 5 of them came in the last three games, including two each against Colorado and Houston.

Cincinnati takes care of the ball, averaging 0.57 turnovers per game, 7th nationally. Mark Cannon Jr. has 3 interceptions, two in the last three games.

Dampier should still find yards through the air. Cincinnati ranks 135th in passing yards allowed and 115th in passing EPA allowed. Patrick Bauer is the Bearcats' disruptor, with 3.5 sacks over the last three games. Braden Pegan is the target to watch for Utah, with 6 touchdown catches this season.

Schedule and the stakes

Utah's record is better than its résumé. The average SP+ rating of its FBS opponents is 0.2, against 6.2 for Cincinnati's. The Utes' recent form has also slipped: they have allowed 20.3 points per game over the last three, compared with 14.6 for the season. They needed to rally from 10-0 down to beat Houston, and they beat Colorado by three as 15-point favorites.

Cincinnati is volatile. It lost 7-34 at Arizona, then beat Texas Tech 37-24 as an 11-point underdog for its first top-10 win since 2021. Utah is the only unbeaten team left in the Big 12. Cincinnati is chasing a first for the league: an unranked team beating consecutive top-10 opponents.

The Bearcats carry injuries into the game. Center Taran Tyo left the Texas Tech game, and a decision on him will likely come late in the week. Receiver Kontosis tore his ACL. Running back Gi'Bran Payne is expected back, and receiver Isaiah Johnson is probable. Utah has ruled out receiver Daidren Zipperer and linebacker Tayson Reid. Tight end Hunter Andrews is questionable.

The market moved toward Cincinnati

Utah opened as a 9.5-point favorite and is now 6.5. Our model sits closer to the opener. It makes Utah a 7.7-point favorite, with a projected score of 32.3 to 24.7, and gives Cincinnati a 31% chance to win. Our total of 57 matches the market. For the first half, our number has Utah by 3.9 with a total of 29.1.