UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons prediction: Evan Medders steers Air Force's option at UNLV's softest spot
A first-time starting quarterback inherits the nation's second-best rushing attack, and the Mountain West leaders bring one of the country's worst run fronts to Colorado Springs.
| Spread | UNLV -0.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 48.5 |
- Air Force grinds long drives on the ground; UNLV needs Jackson Arnold's big plays to protect its first-place spot.
- Air Force's blocking up front, 4th in line yards, against a UNLV front that ranks 130th in line yards allowed.
- Our model doesn't price this game yet.
Medders inherits the option
Air Force lost its quarterback and barely broke stride. Liam Szarka is out for the season with a lower-leg injury, and he had been the engine of the offense, running for 391 yards and 7 touchdowns in four games. Sophomore Evan Medders started in Szarka's place against Northern Illinois and ran for 114 yards and two scores on 16 carries in a 28-7 win.
The machinery around him is intact. Air Force runs for 325.6 yards per game, 2nd in the country, and its line averages 3.7 line yards per carry (a measure of how much push blockers create before the back is on his own), which ranks 4th. It throws for just 73.2 yards per game, dead last, and doesn't care.
UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons: quick answers
Who is favored in UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons?
UNLV is favored by 0.5 points (UNLV -0.5).
What is the over/under for UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons?
The total is 48.5 points.
When is UNLV Rebels vs Air Force Falcons?
Saturday, October 17, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.