UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction: Homecoming payback: Arkansas State's run game targets ULM's broken front
ULM ended a 15-game skid in this series last fall, but this year's Warhawks can't stop the run, and that is exactly where Arkansas State lives.
| Spread | Arkansas State -14.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 52.5 |
- Arkansas State, rested off a bye, should control this on the ground and cover the special-teams margins while ULM's offense struggles to sustain drives.
- Arkansas State's quarterback-run spread against a ULM defense allowing 222.5 rushing yards per game, 135th in FBS.
- Our number makes Arkansas State a 15.4-point favorite, slightly beyond the -14.5 market, with a fair total of 53.0 that matches the line.
A streak, broken and remembered
Last November, UL Monroe beat Arkansas State 28-16 in Monroe and ended a 15-game losing streak in this series that dated to 2009. The Red Wolves get their first chance to answer on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET, and they get it at homecoming.
The two programs have gone in different directions since. ULM is 1-7 and ranks 133rd of 138 in SP+. Arkansas State is 4-4, has won two straight over Southern Miss and Georgia State, and comes in off a bye. Butch Jones said Tuesday that the open week interrupted his team's momentum. Fourteen days of rest against ULM's seven is a decent trade for it.
Where ULM gives ground
The case for Arkansas State starts at the line of scrimmage. ULM allows 222.5 rushing yards per game, 135th in FBS, and its stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) is 14.0%, 131st. Its rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) ranks 127th. That is a defense that rarely wins a snap in the backfield.
Arkansas State's offense is built to exploit it. The Red Wolves run a quarterback-run spread with a success rate (share of plays that keep the offense on schedule) of 47.6%, 23rd nationally, and their rushing EPA ranks 43rd. Our projection has them running for 186 yards.
One caution: right tackle Sterling Wiggins is out for the season, and Jones didn't disclose the injury. ULM's recent defensive numbers are also kinder than its season line, allowing a 33.6% success rate over its last three games. Those came against Louisiana Tech, Troy and Southern Miss, and Southern Miss still scored 35 on the Warhawks in Monroe.
Owens and the passing window
Arkansas State hasn't announced a Week 10 starter, but Trey Owens has run the offense and is our projected starter. He has been sharp lately: 70.0% completions and 9.0 yards per attempt over his last three games, with six touchdown passes. He threw for 418 yards against South Alabama and 309 against Georgia State.
ULM's pass defense gives him room. It ranks 113th in passing EPA allowed, and the Warhawks average 0.75 takeaways per game, 123rd. Jaylen Bonelli caught seven passes for 150 yards against Georgia State, and Hunter Summers had 145 yards against South Alabama. Arkansas State turns it over only 1.0 time per game, 35th, which leaves ULM few ways to steal possessions.
ULM's offense has stalled
The Warhawks average 14.0 points over their last three games, with an offensive EPA per play of -0.123 in that stretch. They convert 31.2% of third downs, 130th. Aidan Armenta has thrown four touchdowns in his last three starts, but at 5.8 yards per attempt.
The opening for ULM is that Arkansas State's defense generates almost no pressure. The Red Wolves average 0.62 sacks per game, 137th of 138, and allow a 45.1% success rate, 123rd. Armenta should have time. Whether ULM can use it is another matter: its explosiveness ranks 130th. Running back Zach Palmer-Smith is questionable with an undisclosed injury, and CJ Phillip is next if he can't go. Linebacker Nigel Nelson could return for Arkansas State after a leg and ankle injury.
Hidden yards and the number
Special teams tilt this further. ULM's net punting average of 34.1 ranks 136th of 137, and it allows 25.4 yards per punt return, 135th. Its opponents start drives at their own 31.9 on average, 133rd. Arkansas State averages 23.2 yards per kick return, 33rd.
The market opened at Arkansas State -14.5 and hasn't moved across 27 books, with the total at 53.0. ULM is 2-6 against the spread, and it covered in the Troy win, when it scored 18 points in the final three minutes. Our model sets Arkansas State at -15.4 and gives the Red Wolves an 84.0% chance to win. If Arkansas State covers, the Red Wolves' rushing line is the natural companion: favorites who cover tend to clear their rushing totals. Our fair first-half line is Arkansas State -8.1.
Where the money is on UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
On the Kalshi moneyline: UL Monroe: 48% of bets, 9% of the money; Arkansas State Red Wolves: 53% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves -14.5: 65% of bets, 17% of the money; UL Monroe +14.5: 35% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 52.5: 42% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 52.5: 58% of bets, 8% of the money.
UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves stats (this season)
| Stat | UL Monroe | Arkansas State Red Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-7 | 4-4 |
| Points per game | 20.1 (121st of 138) | 27.4 (74th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 34.8 (131st of 138) | 26.3 (86th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.01 (123rd of 138) | 6.09 (47th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.22 (121st of 138) | 6.26 (124th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 209.5 (88th of 138) | 242.5 (52nd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 121.8 (113th of 138) | 136.4 (100th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 31.3% (131st of 138) | 42.4% (48th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 (79th of 138) | 1.00 (36th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 (125th of 138) | 1.63 (23rd of 138) |
| EPA per play | -0.042 (133rd of 138) | 0.182 (48th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.219 (124th of 138) | 0.155 (110th of 138) |
Key players
- Trey Owens (Arkansas State): Has completed 70.0% of his passes at 9.0 yards per attempt over his last three games.
- Jaylen Bonelli (Arkansas State): Leads the team with 452 receiving yards, including 150 against Georgia State.
- Hunter Summers (Arkansas State): Caught nine passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns against South Alabama.
- Kenyon Clay (Arkansas State): Ran for 77 yards on 11 carries against Georgia State before the bye.
- Aidan Armenta (UL Monroe): Has averaged 5.8 yards per attempt over his last three games, with four touchdowns and two interceptions.
- Marcellus Jackson (UL Monroe): Has 207 receiving yards over his last three games, including an 83-yard catch against Southern Miss.
- Kevontay Wells (UL Monroe): Has 2.0 of his 3.0 sacks over his last three games, against a line that rarely gives them up.
- Zachary Palmer-Smith (UL Monroe): Questionable after averaging 4.4 yards per carry over his last three games.
Numbers that matter
| ULM rushing yards allowed per game | 222.5 | Ranks 135th of 138, facing an offense built around the quarterback run. |
|---|---|---|
| ULM stuff rate | 14.0% | 131st nationally, so Arkansas State runs should rarely be stopped at the line. |
| Arkansas State sacks per game | 0.62 | 137th of 138, the one area where ULM's offense gets a break. |
| ULM net punting rank | 136th | Combined with poor punt coverage, it hands Arkansas State short fields. |
| Market spread | -14.5 | Arkansas State's number opened and has stayed here; our model sits at -15.4. |
UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves: quick answers
Who is favored in UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves?
Arkansas State is favored by 14.5 points (Arkansas State -14.5).
What is the over/under for UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves?
The total is 52.5 points.
When is UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
Where is UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves played?
Centennial Bank Stadium.
Where is the money on UL Monroe vs Arkansas State Red Wolves?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UL Monroe: 48% of bets, 9% of the money; Arkansas State Red Wolves: 53% of bets, 91% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves -14.5: 65% of bets, 17% of the money; UL Monroe +14.5: 35% of bets, 83% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 52.5: 42% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 52.5: 58% of bets, 8% of the money.