UAB vs South Florida Bulls prediction: South Florida's ground game targets UAB's soft front on Halloween
UAB has the nation's stingiest pass defense by yardage, but its run front gets moved, and the Bulls need one more win to reach a bowl.
| Spread | South Florida -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 42.2 |
- USF leans on the run, grinds out drives and protects the ball, while UAB's offense struggles to finish against a stingy red-zone defense.
- D.J. Crowther and the USF line against a UAB front that ranks 135th in stuff rate.
- Our model makes South Florida a 9.9-point favorite with a 42.5 total, slightly more bullish than the market's 8.
Where UAB's defense bends
South Florida plays a black-on-black Halloween game at noon needing one win to clinch bowl eligibility. UAB arrives 2-1 in the American with a conference title picture still in view. The game turns on one stretch of grass: the line of scrimmage when the Bulls run.
UAB's pass defense is elite by yardage. It allows 126.0 passing yards per game, 1st of 138, and ranks 3rd in explosiveness allowed (how damaging the successful plays against it are). The run defense is another story. The Blazers give up 190.9 rushing yards per game, 123rd nationally. Their line yards allowed per carry (the push an offensive line earns on runs) is 3.37, 131st. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 13.3%, which ranks 135th.
Our projection has USF running for 182 yards. D.J. Crowther carries that load with 518 yards and 7 touchdowns, though he has averaged 3.6 per carry over his last three games. The Bulls don't hit chunk plays: their explosiveness ranks 132nd. They stay on schedule instead, with a 47.3% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense ahead of the chains) that ranks 31st. That kind of offense fits this matchup. Against UAB, USF won't need big plays to keep drives alive. In our testing, a favorite that covers tends to go over its rushing line, and this game sets up that way.
Burton behind a patched line
UAB center Adam Lepkowski remains out with the injury he suffered against Memphis, and the Blazers' protection already had problems. They allow 2.71 sacks per game, 118th, and their passing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 127th. Ryder Burton has completed 49.3% of his throws over his last three games.
The USF front is built to punish that. The Bulls rank 14th in tackles for loss at 7.14 per game and 17th in stuff rate at 23.6%. Michael Williams II has 2.5 sacks in his last three games.
UAB wants to run. It averages 168.0 rushing yards per game, 54th, but USF ranks 25th in rushing EPA allowed. Receiver Jaylen Elder and tight end Antonio Ferguson both missed the East Carolina game. Ferguson was expected back after the bye, and neither has a confirmed status for Saturday. UAB's last road trip against a ranked-SP+ opponent ended in a 13-38 loss at Memphis.
Hidden yards favor the Bulls
South Florida rarely beats itself. It commits 0.57 turnovers per game, 7th nationally, and Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown no interceptions in 179 attempts. Its 38.9 penalty yards per game rank 11th.
The red zone looks lopsided. UAB scores 2.89 points per scoring opportunity, 120th. USF allows 2.59, 9th. The Blazers' best counter is their kicker, who has made 17/19 field goals. Their defense also forces 1.43 takeaways per game, 37th, and Delvon Gulley's 80-yard interception return for a touchdown decided the East Carolina win.
The number and the caveat
The market opened South Florida -8 and hasn't moved across 29 books, with the total at 42.5. Our model has the Bulls at -9.91 with the same 42.5 total, a fair score near 26.2 to 16.3, and a 73% win probability for USF. Our first-half number is USF -6.5.
Two caveats temper that. USF is 3-4 against the spread, failing to cover as an 18-point favorite in a 14-6 win at Bowling Green and losing 13-17 to Temple as a favorite. Its schedule has also been soft: the FBS opponents it has played average a -8.4 SP+, against -2.6 for UAB's. USF won last season's meeting 48-18. Both teams come off a bye.
Key players
- Ryder Burton (UAB): He has completed 49.3% of his passes over his last three games, behind a line missing its starting center.
- Roderick Robinson II (UAB): He leads UAB with 436 rushing yards but has no rushing touchdowns this season.
- C.J. Smith (UAB): He caught 8 passes for 119 yards against East Carolina, the Blazers' best receiving day in that stretch.
- Marlin Dean (UAB): He leads the defense with 6 sacks and 9 tackles for loss.
- D.J. Crowther (South Florida): He has 518 yards and 7 touchdowns, though he has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over his last three games.
- Michael Van Buren Jr. (South Florida): He has thrown 0 interceptions while completing 64.2% of his passes.
- Michael Williams II (South Florida): He has 2.5 sacks over his last three games against a UAB line that allows 2.71 per game.
- Bryson Rodgers (South Florida): He leads the Bulls with 30 catches for 334 yards.
Numbers that matter
| UAB stuff rate | 135th | UAB stops only 13.3% of runs at or behind the line, among the fewest in FBS. |
|---|---|---|
| UAB pass yards allowed | 126.0 | This ranks 1st nationally, which is why USF's path runs through the ground game. |
| USF turnovers per game | 0.57 | This ranks 7th and limits UAB's chances to steal possessions. |
| UAB points per opportunity | 2.89 | This ranks 120th and comes up against a USF defense that ranks 9th at limiting points per trip. |
| Model spread gap | 1.9 | Our fair line likes South Florida slightly more than the market's 8 points does. |
UAB vs South Florida Bulls: quick answers
Who is favored in UAB vs South Florida Bulls?
South Florida is favored by 7.5 points (South Florida -7.5).
What is the over/under for UAB vs South Florida Bulls?
The total is 42.2 points.
When is UAB vs South Florida Bulls?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.