Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave prediction: Two Broken Run Defenses Put Tulsa at Tulane on the Ground
Both defenses bleed rushing yards, so the game turns on whose backs cash in and which offense protects the ball.
| Spread | Tulsa -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 50.2 |
- Expect a run-heavy game with big gains on both sides; Tulsa's ball security against Tulane's giveaways likely separates two evenly matched teams.
- Johnnie Daniels and Tulane's boom-or-bust offense against a Tulsa defense that ranks 128th in havoc and rarely blows plays up.
- Our number makes Tulane a 0.7-point underdog, slightly closer than the market's 2, and agrees with the total of 50.
Neither Defense Stops the Run
This is Tulane's Homecoming, a battle of 4-4 teams whose defenses share one glaring flaw. Tulsa allows 202.0 rushing yards per game, 130th of 138 FBS teams. Tulane is worse at 214.2, ranked 132nd.
The difference is what each offense brings to that weakness. Tulsa's rushing EPA (expected points added per play) is 0.207, 17th nationally. Trequan Jones has averaged 6.7 yards per carry over his last three games, well ahead of Damari Alston's 3.9.
Tulane's offense lives on big plays. The Green Wave rank 1st in explosiveness, which measures how much a successful play gains. They rank 135th in success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule. Their line yards per carry, a measure of what the blockers create, sit at 2.72, 125th. So the backs make the gains, not the line. Johnnie Daniels has turned 28 carries into 258 yards over his last three games.
Tulsa's front is poorly built to stop that style before it starts. Its havoc rate, the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup, is 12.0%, 128th. Its stuff rate, runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 104th.
Tulsa Owns the Turnover Ledger
The cleanest edge in this game belongs to the visitors. Tulsa gives the ball away 0.62 times per game, 7th nationally. It takes the ball away 1.88 times per game, ranked 9th.
Tulane turns it over 1.62 times per game, 115th. For an offense that struggles to string plays together, a giveaway wipes out a drive it can't easily replace.
Third down tilts the other way. Tulsa converts just 33.3%, 119th. Tulane's defense allows conversions on 50.0% of third downs, 135th. One of those numbers will look different by Saturday afternoon, and Tulsa's long drives depend on which one.
Hayes Rested, Johnson Riding High
Baylor Hayes missed two games with a knee sprain and came back for the Rice win on Oct. 17. He has been sharp since: 8.1 yards per attempt over his last three games. He threw 6 touchdowns in that stretch. He was intercepted once. There has been no report on his knee this week, and he is projected to start.
Tulsa also gets the scheduling edge. Its last game was a 38-35 loss to Army on Oct. 23, decided by a 50-yard field goal on the final play. That leaves the Golden Hurricane with 15 days of rest against 8 for Tulane.
Tulane rides freshman Trace Johnson, who looks secure in the job after the 38-31 overtime win at Charlotte. He tied that game with a fourth-quarter touchdown to Cameron Roberts with 10 seconds left. His protection is the worry: Tulane allows 2.25 sacks per game, 97th. Kyran Duhon, with 6.0 sacks, is the Tulsa rusher to watch.
Kicking Could Swing a Close One
In a game priced this tight, Tulsa's kicking is a real liability. The Golden Hurricane have made 6/10 field goals, 60.0%, which ranks 119th. Even extra points are shaky at 92.9%, 124th.
Tulane is steadier. It hasn't missed an extra point, and its net punting average of 46.4 yards ranks 5th. That leg matters for an offense that often starts with a long field: Tulane's average starting position is the 26.8-yard line, 118th.
Where Our Number Lands
Tulsa is a 2-point favorite on the road, a line that hasn't moved since it opened, with the total at 50. Our model makes Tulane a 0.7-point underdog and gives the Green Wave a 48.0% chance to win. That is a slightly warmer view of Tulane than the market's, by 1.3 points.
Our fair total lands right on the market at 50. That fits the matchup: in our testing, rushing yards go with the over, and both defenses hand out yards on the ground. History leans Tulane too, which won 31-14 at Tulsa last season.
Where the money is on Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tulsa Golden Hurricane: 35% of bets, 93% of the money; Tulane Green Wave: 65% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5: 69% of bets, 92% of the money; Tulane Green Wave +2.5: 31% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 88% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 50.5: 12% of bets, 8% of the money.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave stats (this season)
| Stat | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | Tulane Green Wave |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 4-4 |
| Points per game | 33.1 (38th of 138) | 21.1 (114th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8 (52nd of 138) | 29.2 (105th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.67 (82nd of 138) | 5.68 (81st of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.53 (77th of 138) | 5.89 (105th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 211.6 (85th of 138) | 203.4 (98th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.1 (65th of 138) | 145.5 (89th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 33.3% (119th of 138) | 40.9% (58th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63 (7th of 138) | 1.63 (115th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.88 (9th of 138) | 1.25 (60th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.184 (47th of 138) | 0.099 (86th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.061 (61st of 138) | 0.111 (89th of 138) |
Key players
- Baylor Hayes (Tulsa): Averaging 8.1 yards per attempt over his last three games since returning from a knee sprain.
- Trequan Jones (Tulsa): Has averaged 6.5 yards per carry this season, a dangerous number against a defense ranked 132nd against the run.
- Oran Singleton Jr. (Tulsa): Leads the receivers with 43 catches for 535 yards this season.
- Kyran Duhon (Tulsa): Has 6.0 sacks this season, facing a Tulane line that ranks 97th in sacks allowed.
- Johnnie Daniels (Tulane): Has run for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns over his last three games.
- Destyn Hill (Tulane): Tulane's top receiver with 32 catches for 390 yards this season.
- Makai Williams (Tulane): Has 4.0 tackles for loss over his last three games, including 2.0 sacks.
- Kevin Adams (Tulane): Leads the defense with 72 tackles and picked off 2 passes against Memphis.
Numbers that matter
| Tulane rushing yards allowed per game | 214.2 | Ranks 132nd of 138, against a Tulsa run game that is 17th in rushing EPA. |
|---|---|---|
| Tulane explosiveness rank | 1st | The best big-play offense in the country, paired with a success rate that ranks 135th. |
| Tulsa turnovers per game | 0.62 | Ranks 7th, while Tulane's 1.62 giveaways per game rank 115th. |
| Tulane third-down conversion allowed | 50.0% | Ranks 135th, facing a Tulsa offense that converts just 33.3% of third downs. |
| Tulsa field-goal percentage | 60.0% | Ranks 119th, a liability in a game priced at 2 points. |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave: quick answers
Who is favored in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave?
Tulsa is favored by 2.5 points (Tulsa -2.5).
What is the over/under for Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave?
The total is 50.2 points.
When is Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Where is Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave played?
Yulman Stadium.
Where is the money on Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Tulane Green Wave?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Tulsa Golden Hurricane: 35% of bets, 93% of the money; Tulane Green Wave: 65% of bets, 7% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -2.5: 69% of bets, 92% of the money; Tulane Green Wave +2.5: 31% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 88% of bets, 92% of the money; Under 50.5: 12% of bets, 8% of the money.