Texas Longhorns vs Missouri Tigers prediction: Undermanned Texas Must Keep Arch Manning Upright in Columbia

A Patched Line, a Bruised Quarterback

Two 6-2 teams with College Football Playoff hopes collide in Columbia, and Texas is making its first trip there since 2011. The Longhorns bring the best defense in the country by one key measure. They also bring an offense held together with tape.

The problem starts up front. Texas allows 3.0 sacks per game, 125th of 138 FBS teams, and its havoc allowed rate (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) sits at 18.1%, 124th. That was before star left tackle Trevor Goosby tore his patellar tendon and was lost for the season. Tight end Nick Townsend, another body who could help in protection, is out too. Manning said he was probably more bruised after the Mississippi State game than after any other game this year.

Sarkisian didn't sugarcoat it. "Obviously, we'll be undermanned Saturday," he said Monday.

Missouri is built to exploit that. The Tigers' havoc rate of 19.5% ranks 14th. Daeden Hopkins leads them with 7.0 sacks, though he has just 0.5 over the last three games, while Donta Simpson has picked up the slack with 2.5 in that stretch. If Missouri wins on early downs and forces Manning into obvious passing situations, this line may not hold.

Where Texas Can Still Strike

The good news for Texas: Missouri's secondary gives up chunks. The Tigers allow 226.6 passing yards per game, 94th, and rank 103rd in explosiveness allowed. Manning has been sharp when he has time, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt over his last three games.

The question is who catches the ball. Cam Coleman, who leads the team with 7 touchdown catches, is officially questionable but hasn't practiced this week and looks unlikely to play. Ryan Wingo is questionable as well. That pushes Emmett Mosley V forward; he caught four passes for 98 yards against Mississippi State, including a 42-yard touchdown that was his first score of the season.

The ground game offers little relief. Texas averages 2.77 line yards per carry (a measure of how much push the offensive line creates), 119th nationally, and running back Hollywood Smothers is out. Raleek Brown has been the bright spot at 6.0 yards per carry over the last three games, but Missouri's run defense ranks 16th, allowing 98.6 yards per game.

Roberts Runs Into a Wall

Missouri's offense runs through Jamal Roberts, who already has 1,005 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. His range shows what's at stake: 222 yards against Texas A&M, then 39 at Ole Miss. He is about to face his toughest front yet. Texas allows just 2.57 line yards per carry, 16th, and a nation-best 4.03 yards per play.

If Roberts stalls, the load shifts to Austin Simmons, and his recent form is concerning. Simmons has completed 57.3% of his passes over the last three games, with his yards per attempt dropping to 6.5 from 8.1 on the season. He has protected the ball, with just 2 interceptions all year.

The wild card is Colin Simmons. The Texas edge rusher has 10.0 sacks in only six games but has missed the last two with a high ankle sprain. His condition is improving, and he could be a game-time decision.

Schedule context matters here too. Texas's FBS opponents average an 11.6 SP+ rating, while Missouri's average 4.8, so Missouri's numbers came against a softer slate. And when the Tigers do reach scoring range, they average 3.57 points per opportunity, 87th, against a Texas defense that allows 2.32, sixth.

Hidden Yards Favor the Tigers

Missouri's best path to an upset lies in the margins. The Tigers commit 0.62 turnovers per game, seventh nationally, while Texas gives the ball away 1.5 times per game, 103rd. Against Arkansas, Missouri turned four takeaways into 24 points, including an early fumble that edge rusher Darris Smith recovered in the end zone.

Field position tilts the same way. Missouri's average drive starts at its own 33.1, seventh in the country, helped by a return game that ranks 12th on punts. Texas ranks 135th in kick return average at 12.9 yards, and its net punting is 102nd.

The one place Texas holds a clear edge is kicking. The Longhorns have made 12 of 13 field goals, while Missouri is 13 of 19. In a game this tight, a missed kick could decide it.

What the Number Says

Texas is a 2.5-point favorite after opening at 4.5, so the market has moved toward Missouri. The total sits at 43.0. Texas is 3-5 against the spread this season, while Missouri is 4-4.

Our model lands almost exactly on the market: Texas by about 2, with a 43.0 total and a 22.5 to 20.5 projected score. It gives Missouri a 45% chance to win at home.

It's also an uncomfortable spot for Drinkwitz. Florida State just fired Mike Norvell, and Drinkwitz was linked to the opening. He said Tuesday he is "not a candidate" for the job. Missouri, meanwhile, is as healthy as it has been all season, while Texas waits on five questionable starters.