Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen prediction: Gutierrez and Navy's ground game face the FBS's softest front
Temple ranks last in the country at creating negative plays, and Navy runs the ball better than almost anyone, so the Owls need Ajani Sheppard to win the game through the air.
| Spread | Navy -7 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 54.5 |
- Navy should grind on the ground against Temple's havoc defense, ranked 138th. Temple's best counter is throwing at a Navy pass defense ranked 128th in passing EPA allowed.
- Jackson Gutierrez, with 982 rushing yards, against a Temple front that ranks last in FBS in tackles for loss per game.
- Our number makes Navy an 8.18-point favorite, close to the market's 7.5, and matches the 54.5 total exactly.
No resistance up front
Both teams are 2-6, but they are losing in different ways. Temple needs to win its final four games to reach a bowl. Navy is trying to snap a three-game losing streak, and it gets to do that against a defense built almost perfectly wrong for what the Midshipmen do.
Navy runs for 295.8 yards per game, third in FBS. Its offensive line ranks sixth in line yards per carry, a measure of the push blockers create before a back reaches the second level. Temple's front can't answer that. The Owls rank 138th of 138 in havoc rate, the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. They are also dead last in tackles for loss per game, and 118th in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. Opponents average 172.9 rushing yards against them, which ranks 107th.
Gutierrez drives the offense. He has 13 rushing touchdowns this season and 477 rushing yards over his last three games. Even Notre Dame, third in SP+, gave up 110 to him. Michael Barrow adds a steady 5.5 yards per carry. Our projection has Navy running for 300 yards.
Sheppard's opening, and his problem
If Temple keeps pace, it will happen through the air. Navy ranks 128th in passing EPA allowed, or expected points added per opponent dropback, and 125th in explosiveness allowed. Over its last three games, opponents stayed on schedule on 53.5% of their plays.
Sheppard can exploit that on a good day. He averages 8.9 yards per attempt this season and topped 10 yards per attempt against both UConn and Charlotte. Then came East Carolina: 118 passing yards and three interceptions, his worst passing game at Temple. The last pick came two plays after safety Saboor Karriem had intercepted Mitch Griffis to give the Owls the ball back with more than four minutes left.
Peter Clarke's injury makes the job harder. He left the field on a cart with his right leg in an air cast, and the injury has been reported as season-ending. Clarke led Temple's receivers with 219 yards over the last three games. Colin Chase becomes the top target.
Where Temple leaks points
Temple can also run. The Owls rank 22nd in rushing EPA and 13th in line yards, and Keveun Mason has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his last three games. Navy's run defense is respectable at 36th in rushing yards allowed, so that matchup is closer to even.
The bigger problem is finishing drives. Temple ranks 114th in points per scoring opportunity, and it starts its average drive at its own 25.8, 133rd nationally. Its defense is also 131st on third down, allowing conversions 48.0% of the time. That is a bad trait against an offense that wants to keep long drives going.
Navy has its own flaws. It ranks 137th in takeaways per game, so any Temple giveaways will mostly be self-inflicted, and its extra-point rate ranks 129th.
The number and the script
Navy is 7.5-point favorite across 27 books, and the line hasn't moved since it opened. The total sits at 54.5. Navy has won five of the last six meetings, including a 32-31 win in Philadelphia last year that ended on Blake Horvath's 51-yard score in the final moments.
The form behind each line is shaky. Temple lost outright as a 19.5-point favorite to Charlotte. Navy is 3-5 against the spread.
The likely game script favors Navy's ground game. In tested games, when the favorite covered, its rushing went over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. With Navy projected at 300 rushing yards against the country's least disruptive front, the cover and the Navy ground game look tied together.
Where the money is on Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen
On the Kalshi moneyline: Temple Owls: 52% of bets, 14% of the money; Navy Midshipmen: 48% of bets, 86% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Navy Midshipmen -7.5: 37% of bets, 36% of the money; Temple Owls +7.5: 63% of bets, 64% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 54.5: 53% of bets, 71% of the money; Under 54.5: 47% of bets, 29% of the money.
Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen stats (this season)
| Stat | Temple Owls | Navy Midshipmen |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-6 | 2-6 |
| Points per game | 23.6 (98th of 138) | 27.6 (73rd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 (89th of 138) | 29.9 (113th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.42 (29th of 138) | 6.21 (41st of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.96 (107th of 138) | 6.14 (115th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 176.6 (123rd of 138) | 108.6 (135th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.3 (30th of 138) | 295.8 (3rd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39.6% (77th of 138) | 41.9% (51st of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 (51st of 138) | 1.25 (67th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 (112th of 138) | 0.50 (137th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.171 (52nd of 138) | 0.202 (38th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.182 (119th of 138) | 0.195 (122nd of 138) |
Key players
- Jackson Gutierrez (Navy): He has 982 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, and ran for 228 yards against North Texas.
- Michael Barrow (Navy): He averages 5.5 yards per carry on 91 attempts.
- Aiden Lyczek (Navy): He leads Navy's defenders listed here with 8.0 tackles for loss.
- Nolan McCamy (Navy): He has 2.0 sacks over his last three games.
- Ajani Sheppard (Temple): He averages 8.9 yards per attempt but threw three interceptions at East Carolina.
- Keveun Mason (Temple): He has averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his last three games.
- Colin Chase (Temple): His 330 receiving yards make him Temple's top healthy target with Clarke out.
- Saboor Karriem (Temple): The safety had 9 tackles and an interception at East Carolina.
Numbers that matter
| Temple havoc rate rank | 138th | Temple is the least disruptive defense in FBS, which is the worst possible profile against Navy's run game. |
|---|---|---|
| Navy rushing yards per game | 295.8 | Navy's rushing offense ranks third nationally and is projected for 300 yards on Saturday. |
| Navy passing EPA allowed rank | 128th | Navy's pass defense is Temple's clearest path to points, if Sheppard avoids turnovers. |
| Temple points per scoring opportunity rank | 114th | Temple stalls once it gets close, which makes it harder to keep pace with Navy's long drives. |
| Our fair spread | -8.18 | Our number makes Navy slightly stronger than the market's 7.5-point line. |
Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen: quick answers
Who is favored in Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen?
Navy is favored by 7 points (Navy -7).
What is the over/under for Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen?
The total is 54.5 points.
When is Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen played?
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Where is the money on Temple Owls vs Navy Midshipmen?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Temple Owls: 52% of bets, 14% of the money; Navy Midshipmen: 48% of bets, 86% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Navy Midshipmen -7.5: 37% of bets, 36% of the money; Temple Owls +7.5: 63% of bets, 64% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 54.5: 53% of bets, 71% of the money; Under 54.5: 47% of bets, 29% of the money.