TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears prediction: Baylor's sack-hungry front hunts a wobbling Jaden Craig in Waco

Craig in the crosshairs

Baylor is 4-1, unbeaten in the Big 12 and riding a four-game winning streak. TCU is 2-3, winless in the league and fielding questions about its quarterback. The 122nd meeting of the oldest rivalry in Texas may hinge on whether Jaden Craig stays upright long enough to answer them.

Baylor's front is built to make that hard. The Bears average 3.6 sacks per game, 3rd nationally. Their havoc rate, the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, sits at 20.3%. TCU gives up 2.6 sacks per game, which ranks 110th.

Craig's season line still looks healthy: 68.8% completions and 8.9 yards per attempt. The recent trend is the worry. He has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, and against BYU a pick with a long return set up a short Cougars touchdown in a 17-10 loss. Craig remains the starter. Backup Adam Schobel was reported to be getting first-team reps, and whether the staff wants a change is unconfirmed.

Big plays against a wall

Baylor's offense lives on chunk plays. Its explosiveness, the average value of its successful plays, rates 1.37, 15th in FBS. It is much less steady snap to snap: the Bears' success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, is 40.2%, 102nd.

That profile runs straight into TCU's best trait. The Horned Frogs allow an explosiveness of 0.96, 1st in the country. If Baylor can't hit over the top, it has to string together drives, and the numbers say that isn't its strength.

D.J. Lagway looked sharp in the 55-19 rout at Arizona State, throwing for 306 yards and four touchdowns while adding a rushing score. He was listed as probable after an ankle injury in late September and played through it. No new injury report has surfaced this week.

TCU has nowhere to run

TCU's ground game has been a dead end. Its rushing EPA, expected points added per carry, is -0.014, 115th in FBS. Line yards, a measure of how much push the offensive line creates, rank 95th.

Baylor's run defense is among the stingiest in the sport, allowing rushing EPA of -0.234, 2nd nationally. Jeremy Payne will struggle to find room against a front that stuffs runners at or behind the line often.

That pushes everything onto Craig's arm, which is where TCU's path to an upset lies. The Frogs throw for 280.0 yards per game, 20th in FBS. Baylor ranks 96th in passing yards allowed. Kari Ashley, who caught six passes for 108 yards against BYU, is the receiver most likely to exploit it, provided Craig has time.

Baylor wins the hidden yards

Baylor's punter flips the field. The Bears' net punting average of 52.6 yards leads FBS, and their average drive start sits at the 35.5, 3rd nationally. TCU's offense will often start long, behind a line that struggles to protect.

The red zone tilts the same way. Baylor holds opponents to 2.13 points per scoring opportunity, 4th in the country. TCU cashes in just 3.32 points per trip, 104th. In a game where neither defense gives much, a few field goals in place of touchdowns could settle it.

Rivalry history and a softer résumé

TCU has dominated this series, winning five of the last six, including a 42-36 shootout in Fort Worth last fall.

Baylor's record deserves a footnote. Its FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of 1.6, while TCU's average 5.6 and include a BYU team ranked 11th. The Frogs' losses came against tougher opposition, and their defense has held up all season. If Baylor's offense keeps sputtering between big plays, TCU's defense keeps this close. The difference is up front: Baylor can pressure Craig, and TCU has shown little ability to protect him.