Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe prediction: Southern Miss's ground game takes aim at ULM's collapsing run defense
Both teams just found their first Sun Belt win, and the one that runs through the other's broken front most likely gets a second.
| Spread | Southern Miss -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 55.5 |
- Expect a ground-heavy game where Southern Miss's line wins the trenches, while missed field goals and short drives keep ULM close.
- Steven Robinson and a top-10 run-blocking line against a ULM front that ranks 133rd in stuff rate.
- Our model makes Southern Miss a 3.8-point favorite with a 56.5 total, almost exactly the market's price.
Two Defenses That Can't Tackle
Two teams that spent October waiting for a conference win arrive in Monroe with that relief still fresh. Southern Miss beat Louisiana on Jamarice Wilder's 16-yard touchdown with 58 seconds left. ULM won its first game of the season at Troy on Aidan Armenta's touchdown pass to Darrion Gilliam with 15 seconds to play. One of them leaves Saturday with a streak.
The game probably turns on the run, because neither defense stops it. Southern Miss allows 232.9 rushing yards per game, 136th of 138 FBS teams. ULM allows 218.7, which ranks 134th.
The gap is in who can exploit it. Southern Miss ranks 10th in line yards per carry at 3.47, a measure of how much ground the blockers create before the back is on his own. ULM ranks 128th in line yards allowed and 133rd in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. Robinson ran for 145 yards and three touchdowns against Louisiana. Wilder averaged 11.8 yards a carry in that game.
ULM can't answer in kind. The Warhawks rank 120th in line yards and 123rd in rushing EPA (expected points added per play). Bryson Roland averages 3.5 yards a carry. Still, our projection gives ULM 168 rushing yards, close to Southern Miss's 172, which says as much about the Golden Eagles' run defense as anything.
Who Throws for Southern Miss
Ethan Hampton is listed as probable with a hand injury and is expected to start. Lyddy has started the last four games, and the passing game has sagged. He averaged 4.3 yards per attempt against Louisiana, and Southern Miss ranks 125th in passing EPA.
Hampton, if he plays, gets a soft target. ULM ranks 124th in passing EPA allowed. Mario Sanders II leads the receivers with 569 yards and five touchdowns, and Grant Page is expected back from an elbow injury for the first time since Week 3.
Armenta has been steadier than his team, at 7.3 yards per attempt for the season. He is also streaky: 355 yards against South Alabama, then 119 yards and two interceptions against Louisiana Tech. His protection is the worry. ULM ranks 130th in havoc allowed (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup). Southern Miss averages 2.43 sacks per game, 36th nationally, and Jameer Lewis has four on the year. Marcellus Jackson is cleared after missing a game, and Parker Fulghum is probable.
The Hidden Yards Cut Both Ways
Southern Miss's best edge on the ground runs into its worst problem at the end of drives. The Golden Eagles have made 2 of 7 field goals, last in the country. In a game priced at 3.5, every stalled drive that ends in a miss matters.
Third down is ugly on both sides. ULM converts 29.2%, 137th, and Southern Miss converts 31.5%, 128th. Expect punts, which favors the visitors. ULM's net punting average of 34.1 ranks 135th of 136, and it allows 25.5 yards per punt return. Southern Miss allows just 2.4 per return, 14th nationally.
What the Price Says
Southern Miss opened as a 3.5-point favorite and hasn't moved, with the total at 56.5. The Golden Eagles have played the tougher schedule, with an average opponent SP+ of -2.9 against ULM's -5.3, and they rate higher in SP+, 126th to 133rd.
The last two meetings split hard: ULM won 38-21 in Monroe in 2024, and Southern Miss won 49-21 last season. ULM is 2-5 against the spread, though its most recent cover came in the Troy upset as a 13.5-point underdog.
If Southern Miss covers, the run game is the likely reason. In tested games, the favorite's rushing went over its line 33.9% of the time when the favorite covered, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. Robinson's rushing line is the natural pairing with a Southern Miss cover.
Key players
- Steven Robinson (Southern Miss): He has 258 rushing yards and four touchdowns over his last three games.
- Jamarice Wilder (Southern Miss): He averages 6.5 yards per carry and ran for 154 yards against Louisiana.
- Mario Sanders II (Southern Miss): He leads the team with 40 catches for 569 yards.
- Jameer Lewis (Southern Miss): He has 2.5 of his four sacks in the last three games.
- Aidan Armenta (UL Monroe): He averages 7.3 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and three interceptions.
- Marcellus Jackson (UL Monroe): He leads ULM with 32 catches and returns after a one-game absence.
- Kevontay Wells (UL Monroe): He has two sacks over his last three games, including 1.5 at Troy.
- Billy Pullen (UL Monroe): He has four tackles for loss and sealed the Troy win with an end-zone fumble recovery.
Numbers that matter
| USM line yards per carry | 10th | Southern Miss's blockers rank near the top nationally against a ULM front that ranks 128th in line yards allowed. |
|---|---|---|
| ULM stuff rate | 133rd | The Warhawks rarely stop runs at or behind the line. |
| USM field goals | 2/7 | The nation's worst kicking can turn red-zone stalls into empty trips in a 3.5-point game. |
| ULM net punting | 34.1 | Ranked 135th of 136, it hands Southern Miss short fields in a game full of third-down failures. |
| USM rush yards allowed per game | 232.9 | Ranked 136th, it is the reason ULM's weak run game still projects for real yardage. |
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe: quick answers
Who is favored in Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe?
Southern Miss is favored by 3.5 points (Southern Miss -3.5).
What is the over/under for Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe?
The total is 55.5 points.
When is Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe?
Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.