SMU Mustangs vs Syracuse Orange prediction: SMU's pass rush gets a wounded Syracuse quarterback room on Halloween

A quarterback question indoors

Syracuse finally won an ACC game, beating North Carolina in overtime to end an 11-game conference losing streak. Now it gets No. 19 SMU, a team in control of its ACC title path, and it may get it without its starting quarterback.

Steven Angeli is questionable, and his status is murky because it may be the same issue that sidelined him earlier this season. If he can't go, Danny Lauter would likely start. The depth behind them is thin: Amari Odom is reported out for the season after shoulder surgery, and Malachi Nelson remains out after high ankle sprain surgery with no set return. Center Kahlil Stewart is also questionable and Matthew Hawn is doubtful, which matters for a line that already struggles.

Even a healthy Angeli has been uneven. Over his last three games he completed 52.8% of his passes with 5 interceptions. That is a bad profile against this SMU front. The Mustangs average 3.0 sacks per game, 11th in the country, and Syracuse allows 2.29 per game, which ranks 100th. Marques White has 4.0 sacks in his last three games. SMU also holds opponents to a 27.3% conversion rate on third down, 4th nationally, so stalled drives tend to stay stalled.

Jennings and the air attack

Kevin Jennings runs one of the most efficient passing games anywhere. SMU's passing EPA (expected points added per play) of 0.514 ranks 4th of 138, and Jennings is averaging 9.7 yards per attempt for the season.

The recent form is more modest. Across his last three games Jennings has dropped to 7.1 yards per attempt, though he hasn't thrown an interception in that stretch. Syracuse's pass defense is its best unit, allowing 0.016 passing EPA per play, 21st nationally. But the Orange will be without defensive back Jai Eugene Jr., and their defense has slipped lately, allowing 0.2 EPA per play over the last three games.

Syracuse's counterpunch is Umari Hatcher. He has 453 receiving yards over his last three games, including 224 against Louisville. SMU's defense gives up big gains when it breaks: its explosiveness allowed ranks 108th. If the Orange are going to cover, Hatcher getting behind that secondary is the likeliest route.

Nobody runs easily here

Neither team should expect much on the ground between the tackles. Syracuse averages 2.61 line yards per carry (a measure of the yards an offensive line creates on runs), which ranks 131st. SMU's run defense ranks 35th in line yards allowed. A possibly shorthanded interior makes that worse for the Orange.

SMU's run game isn't a bulldozer either, ranking 93rd in line yards. Syracuse's front is good at blowing up runs, with a stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) of 24.9%, 9th in the country. Kendrick Raphael has still been steady, and SMU leaned on him late against Cal. Expect the Mustangs to win this game through the air and use Raphael to close it out.

Hidden yards favor the Mustangs

Syracuse gives away free yardage. The Orange average 93.3 penalty yards per game, last of 138 teams, and their extra-point rate of 78.3% also ranks last. Syracuse's last four games were all decided by one score or less, the latest an overtime win in Chapel Hill.

SMU's kicking is shaky too, but the Mustangs make up for it with field position. Their average start of the 33.9-yard line ranks 4th nationally, so SMU often needs fewer yards to score.

Where the number sits

Syracuse opened as a 9.5-point underdog and has moved to +10.5, with the total at 57.5. The Orange have covered each of their last three games as underdogs, all against ACC opponents, so this team has kept games close.

Our model makes SMU an 11.2-point favorite, a hair past the market, with a fair total of 57.68. It projects roughly 34.4 to 23.2 and gives Syracuse a 24.0% chance to win. The Angeli news is the swing factor: if Lauter starts, the case for SMU's pass rush taking over gets stronger.