Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks prediction: Caden Creel's legs face a Sam Houston defense that can't stop the run
Jacksonville State's unbeaten Conference USA run needs one thing on homecoming night, and the Bearkats have spent all season giving it away on the ground.
| Spread | Jacksonville State -16.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 45.5 |
- Jacksonville State runs early and often against an interim-led Sam Houston team that has scored 3 points in three of its last four games.
- Caden Creel's scrambles and designed runs against a Bearkat run defense ranked 125th in rushing yards allowed.
- Our model makes it Jacksonville State -17.6 with a total of 48, essentially the market number on both.
Creel and the open middle
Jacksonville State is 4-0 in Conference USA, and the cleanest path to 5-0 runs straight through Sam Houston's defensive front. The Bearkats give up 191.8 rushing yards per game, 125th of 138 FBS teams. They rank 119th in rushing EPA allowed, which measures how many expected points each run adds for the offense. Throwing on them is a different story: they allow only 146.4 passing yards per game, fourth in the country.
That split suits Caden Creel. The Gamecocks quarterback ran for a career-high 211 yards and a touchdown in last week's 24-0 shutout of New Mexico State, and he has 711 rushing yards this season. His line creates room, averaging 3.14 line yards per carry (48th), the yardage blockers win before a runner reaches the second level. Our projection has Jacksonville State running for 256 yards.
Sam Houston's defense does make plays behind the line, ranking 20th in havoc (the share of snaps ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup). That disruption hasn't translated into stopping runs at the line, where its stuff rate ranks 79th.
An offense with nothing left
Sam Houston scored 3 points against Liberty, 3 against Western Kentucky and 3 against Missouri State. Over its last three games the offense posted a 27.5% success rate, the share of plays that keep a drive on schedule. The run game is the worst in FBS at 75.9 yards per game, 138th of 138. Protection is nearly as bad: the Bearkats rank 136th in havoc allowed.
The quarterback spot adds fog. Landyn Locke warmed up before the Missouri State game but couldn't play, and shortly after kickoff he was on the sideline in a walking boot and street clothes. Phil Longo had said the medical staff believed Locke suffered a fibular fracture before an X-ray. His status for Saturday is unconfirmed. If he can't go, offensive coordinator Zack Patterson will choose between DJ Bailey and freshman Brett Holloway, and our projection lists Bailey. Locke was fading anyway, at 5.3 yards per attempt over his last three games.
The Bearkats' one real weapon is the big play: they rank 17th in explosiveness. Tim Burns Jr. turned four catches into 117 yards against New Mexico State. Jacksonville State is built to deny exactly that, ranking ninth in explosiveness allowed.
Interim coaches, familiar result
Sam Houston fired Longo on Oct. 28 after the 1-7 start, ending his tenure at 3-17. Associate head coach Eric Raisbeck and defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay now serve as interim co-head coaches. They got 11 days to prepare, one more than Jacksonville State, which beat New Mexico State on a Wednesday night.
A coaching change hasn't been needed to explain the slide. Sam Houston has failed to cover in each of its last four games, and the losses to Western Kentucky, New Mexico State and Missouri State came against teams ranked 116th, 120th and 129th in SP+.
The series has been closer than the records. Jacksonville State won 35-28 in 2023, 21-11 in 2024 and 29-27 last season on Garrison Rippa's 52-yard field goal. The Gamecocks have also lived on thin margins this year, beating Kennesaw State 27-26 and FIU 27-24, which is why they sit 84th in SP+ despite a 6-2 record.
Where the number lands
The line opened at Jacksonville State -17 and hasn't budged across 27 books, with the total at 48. Our model sits right on top of it: a fair spread of Jacksonville State -17.6, a total of 48 and a projected score near 33-15. It gives the Gamecocks an 87% chance to win.
The likely game script matters more than the side. In tested games, when the favorite covers, its rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated. If Jacksonville State gets past 17, it most likely does so on the ground. The underdog's passing also tends to go under in those games, which fits a Bearkat offense facing a pass defense ranked 11th in yards allowed.
Two things could keep Sam Houston closer. Jacksonville State allows 46.4% on third down, 125th nationally, which can keep weak offenses on the field. The Gamecocks also rank 131st in kick return average allowed, the kind of hidden yardage a stalled offense badly needs.
Where the money is on Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Sam Houston State Bearkats: 66% of bets, 15% of the money; Jacksonville State Gamecocks: 34% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -15.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Sam Houston State Bearkats +15.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 38% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 45.5: 63% of bets, 100% of the money.
Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks stats (this season)
| Stat | Sam Houston State Bearkats | Jacksonville State Gamecocks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-7 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 18.0 (131st of 138) | 26.9 (78th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 25.1 (75th of 138) | 19.9 (30th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.11 (119th of 138) | 6.42 (28th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21 (49th of 138) | 5.17 (46th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 246.9 (44th of 138) | 224.0 (75th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 75.9 (138th of 138) | 171.9 (49th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 35.4% (108th of 138) | 47.3% (24th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 (51st of 138) | 1.50 (103rd of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13 (75th of 138) | 0.88 (112th of 138) |
| EPA per play | -0.024 (131st of 138) | 0.186 (46th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.090 (77th of 138) | 0.053 (56th of 138) |
Key players
- Caden Creel (Jacksonville State): Ran for 211 yards against New Mexico State and has 711 rushing yards to go with 1,746 passing.
- Jalen Likely (Jacksonville State): Averages 5.5 yards per carry and has two rushing touchdowns in his last three games.
- Luke Gilbert (Jacksonville State): Has scored in back-to-back games, with 172 receiving yards over his last three.
- Caleb Nix (Jacksonville State): Leads the listed defenders with 52 tackles and has two interceptions.
- Landyn Locke (Sam Houston): Status unconfirmed after missing Missouri State; he averaged 5.3 yards per attempt over his last three games.
- Tim Burns Jr. (Sam Houston): The big-play threat, with 392 yards on 18 catches this season.
- Josh Alexander-Felton (Sam Houston): Has 3 of his 4 sacks in the last three games, including two against Missouri State.
Numbers that matter
| Sam Houston rush yards allowed | 125th | The Bearkats give up 191.8 rushing yards per game, the opening Creel needs. |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston pass yards allowed | 4th | The Bearkats are stingy through the air, which pushes Jacksonville State toward the run. |
| Sam Houston success rate, last 3 | 27.5% | The offense has stopped staying on schedule, averaging 10 points over that stretch. |
| Jacksonville State third down allowed | 46.4% | Ranked 125th, the Gamecocks' biggest defensive weakness. |
| Our fair spread | -17.62 | Essentially matches the market's Jacksonville State -17. |
Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks: quick answers
Who is favored in Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks?
Jacksonville State is favored by 16.5 points (Jacksonville State -16.5).
What is the over/under for Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks?
The total is 45.5 points.
When is Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
Where is Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks played?
AmFirst Stadium.
Where is the money on Sam Houston State Bearkats vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Sam Houston State Bearkats: 66% of bets, 15% of the money; Jacksonville State Gamecocks: 34% of bets, 85% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -15.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money; Sam Houston State Bearkats +15.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 38% of bets, 0% of the money; Under 45.5: 63% of bets, 100% of the money.