Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green prediction: Rice's run-only offense collides with North Texas's sturdiest unit
The Owls can only win on the ground, and the ground is the one place the Mean Green defense holds up.
| Spread | North Texas -16.2 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 64.5 |
- North Texas's passing game should build a lead while Rice grinds out yards on the ground and struggles to keep pace.
- Rice's run-first game against a North Texas front that ranks 21st in line yards allowed.
- Our model makes North Texas a 17.69-point favorite, barely off the market's 17.
Rice can only run
North Texas is 4-0 in the American, chasing a conference title, and playing its homecoming game with a UTSA showdown on the horizon. Rice arrives 1-7, trying to snap a seven-game losing streak. The upset path is narrow, and it runs straight through the Mean Green's strength.
The Owls average 272.2 rushing yards per game, 4th in FBS, and just 82.5 passing yards, 136th of 138. North Texas gives up 31.9 points a game, yet its run defense is genuinely good: 33rd in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each run hurts a defense). Line yards, which credit blockers for the first few yards of a carry, tell the same story. UNT allows 2.6 per carry, 21st nationally, while Rice's line produces 3.02, 74th.
Rice's volume also flatters its efficiency. Its rushing EPA ranks 56th and its success rate (share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) sits 92nd. When drives stall, there is no fallback: the Owls convert 31.3% of third downs, 129th.
A quarterback question, unanswered
Abell hasn't named a starter. Jacurri Brown is working back to full health and is expected to be ready, but Abell said he wasn't ready to discuss the plan, with Gael Ochoa and PJ Hatter also available.
Ochoa's lone start was a jolt: 259 rushing yards on 12 carries and four touchdowns in the 51-49 loss at Florida Atlantic, where a go-ahead field goal fell short in the final minute. Brown has 668 rushing yards this season, but his passing has cratered, 10 of 30 over his last three games.
Whoever starts, Rice ranks dead last in passing EPA, so North Texas can crowd the box. That wastes UNT's real weakness, a pass defense that ranks 123rd in passing EPA allowed.
Jackson is on a heater
Tayven Jackson has completed 72.4% of his passes for 2568 yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. He's accelerating: 1058 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last three games. Justin Stevenson caught 450 yards of that stretch, including 209 at Navy.
Jahiem White keeps defenses honest with 1043 yards at 7.3 a carry. Protection is elite, too: 0.75 sacks allowed per game, 7th in FBS.
Rice's defense lives in the backfield, with 6.75 tackles for loss per game (18th), but it rarely finishes plays as sacks (103rd) or takeaways (133rd). Over its last three games it allowed 39.0 points a game, while UNT scored 49.0.
Hidden yards pile up
Rice's average drive starts at its own 24.4, last of 138. Opponents start at the 32.5, 137th. That is a long field every possession for an offense that can't pass, and a short one for an offense that doesn't need help. The kicking game compounds it: Rice has made 5 of 11 field goals.
There is one opening. Rice averages 17.5 yards per punt return (8th), and North Texas ranks 131st in punt return yards allowed. A flipped field there is probably Rice's best shot at cheap points. The danger cuts both ways, since UNT returns punts at 21.1 yards a pop, 4th in FBS.
Where the number lands
North Texas is favored by 17, the same number it opened at across 27 books, with a total of 64.5. UNT is 5-2-1 against the spread, Rice 4-4. Rice has had 14 days to prepare, North Texas nine.
Our model barely disagrees: North Texas by 17.69 with a total of 64.62, a projected 41.1-23.5 score, and an 87% win chance for the Mean Green. If UNT covers, White's rushing is the correlated angle; favorites that cover tend to clear their rushing lines.
Where the money is on Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green
On the Kalshi moneyline: Rice Owls: 31% of bets, 30% of the money; North Texas Mean Green: 69% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: North Texas Mean Green -16.5: 53% of bets, 5% of the money; Rice Owls +16.5: 47% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 64.5: 91% of bets, 93% of the money; Under 64.5: 9% of bets, 7% of the money.
Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green stats (this season)
| Stat | Rice Owls | North Texas Mean Green |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-7 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 21.0 (115th of 138) | 43.8 (3rd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8 (121st of 138) | 31.9 (122nd of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.72 (77th of 138) | 7.45 (3rd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 (83rd of 138) | 5.76 (92nd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 82.5 (136th of 138) | 347.8 (2nd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 272.3 (4th of 138) | 187.8 (35th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 31.3% (130th of 138) | 49.5% (17th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.38 (79th of 138) | 1.25 (67th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63 (133rd of 138) | 1.50 (29th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.031 (111th of 138) | 0.319 (5th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.143 (104th of 138) | 0.083 (75th of 138) |
Key players
- Gael Ochoa (Rice): Ran for 259 yards and four touchdowns on 12 carries in his first start at Florida Atlantic.
- Jacurri Brown (Rice): Has 668 rushing yards this season but completed only 10 of 30 passes over his last three games.
- Tyvonn Byars (Rice): Averaging 5.7 yards per carry over his last three games, up from 4.8 for the season.
- Koa Akui (Rice): Has 6.0 tackles for loss in his last three games, including 4.0 against East Carolina.
- Tayven Jackson (North Texas): Threw for 1058 yards and 12 touchdowns with one interception over his last three games.
- Jahiem White (North Texas): Has 1043 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns at 7.3 yards per carry.
- Justin Stevenson (North Texas): Caught 26 passes for 450 yards and five touchdowns over his last three games.
- Davion Rhodes (North Texas): Leads the listed defenders with 4.0 sacks this season.
Numbers that matter
| Rice rushing yards per game | 272.2 | 4th in FBS and the only way the Owls move the ball. |
|---|---|---|
| UNT line yards allowed per carry | 2.6 | 21st nationally, a front built to blunt exactly what Rice does. |
| Rice passing EPA rank | 138th | Last in FBS, which lets North Texas ignore its own weak pass defense. |
| Rice average starting field position | 24.4 | Last of 138, so every Rice drive starts with a long field. |
| Jackson last-3 passing yards | 1058 | With 12 touchdowns, the UNT passing game is trending up. |
Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green: quick answers
Who is favored in Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green?
North Texas is favored by 16.2 points (North Texas -16.2).
What is the over/under for Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green?
The total is 64.5 points.
When is Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Where is Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green played?
DATCU Stadium.
Where is the money on Rice Owls vs North Texas Mean Green?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Rice Owls: 31% of bets, 30% of the money; North Texas Mean Green: 69% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: North Texas Mean Green -16.5: 53% of bets, 5% of the money; Rice Owls +16.5: 47% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 64.5: 91% of bets, 93% of the money; Under 64.5: 9% of bets, 7% of the money.