Pittsburgh Panthers vs Boston College Eagles prediction: Holden Geriner's second start tests Pitt against a rested Boston College

Geriner inherits the offense

Pitt spent a month winning with Mason Heintschel's arm. Now it has to win in Chestnut Hill with Holden Geriner's, against a Boston College team that has had two weeks to plan for him.

Heintschel tore his ACL against Virginia Tech and will miss the rest of the season. Narduzzi said Monday that Geriner remains the starter, arguing that too much rotation at quarterback only creates bigger problems. Geriner's first start was rough. He threw for 219 yards and two interceptions in the home loss to North Carolina. The first pick was essentially an arm punt on fourth-and-2 in Tar Heels territory.

Pitt's passing numbers were built with Heintschel under center. The Panthers average 299.8 passing yards per game, 16th nationally, and Geriner has not yet shown he can sustain that pace. He also faces the best unit on Boston College's roster. The Eagles allow 164.6 passing yards per game, 19th of 138.

Geriner's protection gives him a chance. Pitt ranks 23rd in havoc allowed, the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, fumble, interception or pass breakup. A clean pocket and a short-area plan could keep him out of trouble.

McKenzie against Pitt's wall

Narduzzi called McKenzie electric and a really good player. McKenzie has run for 437 yards this season, including 138 against Virginia Tech. At SMU he accounted for 282 of the offense's 322 total yards.

The front waiting for him is the best thing Pitt does. The Panthers allow 51.0 rushing yards per game, second in the country. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 30.5%, third nationally. Boston College's line is poorly built to push back. The Eagles average 2.74 line yards per carry, a measure of the yardage the blockers create, and that ranks 116th. Their havoc allowed rate of 19.6% ranks 133rd, so drives keep dying behind the chains.

BC can hurt Pitt with big plays. The Panthers rank 130th in explosiveness allowed, which measures how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. They also give up 240.0 passing yards per game, 110th. If McKenzie can escape the first wave and throw downfield, that is where Boston College's points come from.

Hidden yards lean Pitt

Boston College's punt unit is a real liability. The Eagles net 34.8 yards per punt, 130th of 136. Every exchange of possessions hands Pitt's new quarterback a shorter field.

Pitt gives some of that back through sloppiness. The Panthers give up 73.2 penalty yards per game, 121st nationally, a habit that can stall a drive for an offense still breaking in a quarterback.

Third down is where BC's offense has broken down most often. The Eagles convert 31.8% of their third downs, 117th in the country. Pitt's defense ranks 12th in third-down conversions allowed. Boston College has to move the ball on early downs or it will spend the afternoon punting.

Two weeks to prepare

Boston College comes in with 14 days of rest after its bye, against 7 for Pitt. Boston College also has the tougher schedule. Its FBS opponents carry an average SP+ rating of 5.6, against 2.3 for Pitt's.

That schedule explains part of the gap between a 2-3 record and the Eagles' play. They lost to Virginia Tech and at SMU but covered the number both times. Pitt still holds the better ratings, 34th in SP+ against Boston College's 92nd.

Boston College played SMU without linebacker Bodie Kahoun, center Michael Crounse and cornerback Syair Torrence. None of them has been confirmed for Saturday. Brady Clough is aiming to return after the bye. The Eagles also battled illness before SMU.

Pitt won last year's meeting 48-7, but it did so with the quarterback it no longer has.