Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies prediction: Penn State's stingy secondary tests Washington's sack-prone, pass-only offense
Washington can only throw, Penn State barely lets anyone throw, and a quarterback with sore ribs sits in the middle of it.
| Spread | Washington -2.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 44 |
- A low-scoring grind where Washington's passing runs into a top-three pass defense and Penn State tries to win on the ground.
- Demond Williams Jr. and his protection against Penn State's havoc. Washington gives up sacks at one of the worst rates in the country.
- Our fair line has Washington by 1.72, slightly short of the market's 2.5, with the total right at 44.5.
Strength against strength
Homecoming at Husky Stadium brings a strange collision. Washington is built almost entirely around the pass, and Penn State is built almost entirely to stop it. The Huskies throw for 276.8 yards per game, 20th nationally. Penn State allows 141.4 passing yards per game, third in the country.
The efficiency numbers agree. Penn State ranks 12th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). Opponents convert just 27.6% of their third downs, fifth nationally. That is a hard place for a Washington offense that converts 33.3% of its own, 119th.
The Nittany Lions do have a soft spot: they rank 116th in rushing EPA allowed. Washington is poorly built to use it. The Huskies run for 95.0 yards per game, 135th of 138, and rank 124th in line yards per carry, which measures how much push the offensive line creates. Running backs Quaid Carr and Jayden Limar are out. Trevion Cooley showed what a single good day can do with 113 yards on eight carries at Purdue, but he has been quiet otherwise.
Williams and the pocket
Demond Williams Jr. hurt his ribs in the loss to Iowa. Jedd Fisch said he expects Williams to start, though that depends on how the quarterback feels after taking hits in his return. Elijah Brown, who started two games during the recovery, remains an option.
Protection is the worry for a quarterback nursing his ribs. Washington allows 3.25 sacks per game, 134th in the country. Penn State doesn't finish many sacks, ranking 121st in sacks per game, but its havoc rate of 18.0% ranks 31st. Havoc is the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. Tony Rojas leads that effort with 5.0 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss.
When Williams has time, he has a go-to target. Chris Lawson caught 12 passes for 155 yards against Nebraska, including a 24-yard grab on fourth-and-18 that set up the winning touchdown. Penn State's corner depth is thin: Joshua Johnson and Tyler Armstead are both out.
Penn State's turn to the run
Penn State's best win of the stretch came when it stopped forcing the ball downfield. With Koby Howard and Chase Sowell out against Purdue, the Nittany Lions established the run. Cam Wallace carried 22 times for 135 yards in the 31-17 win, which ended a four-game losing streak.
Washington's front will make that harder. The Huskies stuff 25.0% of runs, seventh nationally, and rank 24th in line yards allowed. Penn State's own push is ordinary at best, 100th in line yards per carry.
The passing game should get help. Sowell is probable, and Matt Campbell said he is a lot closer to full strength; Sowell had 11 catches for 151 yards at Michigan. Howard, with 344 receiving yards in three games, is questionable and has been "very limited" in practice. Rocco Becht protects the ball well enough, with 13 touchdowns against 5 interceptions, and Penn State's 0.88 turnovers per game ranks 25th. That matters against a Washington defense that ranks 14th in takeaways.
The punting gap
In a game projected in the mid-40s, field position could swing the result. Penn State's punting is a real problem. Its gross average of 39.5 yards ranks 130th, and it allows 28.7 yards per punt return, dead last at 137th of 137.
Washington's punter averages 48.1 yards, seventh nationally. The Huskies need that edge, because their offense starts drives at an average of the 26.9-yard line, 116th. Penalties also cost them: 64.5 yards per game ranks 99th. If Washington's drives stall against that Penn State pass defense, the punting edge is how the Huskies stay even.
What the number says
The line opened at Washington -1.5 and has moved to -2.5, toward the Huskies, with the total at 44.5. Washington has covered all three games it was an underdog in recently, including a 17-10 win at Nebraska. The one recent game it was favored, it lost 24-41 at home to Iowa. Penn State has its own warning sign: a 13-34 loss at Northwestern as a favorite.
Our model makes Washington a 1.72-point favorite, a little short of the market. It projects a 23.1 to 21.4 final, which lands exactly on the total. The model gives the Huskies a 54% chance to win.
Where the money is on Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies
On the Kalshi moneyline: Penn State Nittany Lions: 68% of bets, 41% of the money; Washington Huskies: 32% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Washington Huskies -2.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 43.5: 83% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 43.5: 17% of bets, 11% of the money.
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies stats (this season)
| Stat | Penn State Nittany Lions | Washington Huskies |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Points per game | 29.0 (65th of 138) | 26.5 (80th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 (23rd of 138) | 21.1 (41st of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.82 (68th of 138) | 5.79 (71st of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.07 (38th of 138) | 5.28 (56th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 245.3 (48th of 138) | 276.8 (20th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.0 (81st of 138) | 95.0 (135th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 36.4% (98th of 138) | 33.3% (119th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 (25th of 138) | 1.13 (51st of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.63 (23rd of 138) | 1.75 (14th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.135 (66th of 138) | 0.121 (72nd of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.034 (45th of 138) | -0.029 (23rd of 138) |
Key players
- Demond Williams Jr. (Washington): He averages 8.0 yards per attempt this season but threw only 13 times against Nebraska while working back from a rib injury.
- Chris Lawson (Washington): He has 26 catches for 344 yards over his last three games, including the late fourth-down grab that beat Nebraska.
- Dezmen Roebuck (Washington): His 53 catches lead the team, a reliable underneath option against a secondary that rarely allows big passing totals.
- Alex McLaughlin (Washington): He leads the defense with 57 tackles and has 3 interceptions.
- Rocco Becht (Penn State): He has 1,839 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions through eight games.
- Cam Wallace (Penn State): His 135 yards on 22 carries against Purdue gave Penn State the ground game it had been missing.
- Chase Sowell (Penn State): He is probable after missing Purdue, and has 510 receiving yards in seven games.
- Tony Rojas (Penn State): He has 5.0 sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss, the main pressure threat against a line that allows sacks.
Numbers that matter
| Penn State pass yards allowed | 3rd | Washington's passing offense ranks 20th, and it is nearly the only way the Huskies move the ball. |
|---|---|---|
| Washington sacks allowed per game | 3.25 | It ranks 134th, a risk for a quarterback coming back from a rib injury. |
| Washington rushing yards per game | 135th | That leaves the Huskies poorly placed to exploit Penn State's 116th-ranked run defense by EPA. |
| Penn State punt return yards allowed | 28.7 | It ranks last in the country, while Washington's punter ranks seventh in gross average. |
| Line move | -1.5 | Washington opened at -1.5 and has been bet to -2.5. |
Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies: quick answers
Who is favored in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies?
Washington is favored by 2.5 points (Washington -2.5).
What is the over/under for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies?
The total is 44 points.
When is Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies played?
Husky Stadium.
Where is the money on Penn State Nittany Lions vs Washington Huskies?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Penn State Nittany Lions: 68% of bets, 41% of the money; Washington Huskies: 32% of bets, 59% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Washington Huskies -2.5: 0% of bets, 0% of the money; Penn State Nittany Lions +2.5: 100% of bets, 100% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 43.5: 83% of bets, 89% of the money; Under 43.5: 17% of bets, 11% of the money.