Penn State Nittany Lions vs Michigan Wolverines prediction: Michigan's suffocating defense faces a Penn State offense running on fumes

Nowhere to finish drives

Two programs used to playing for Big Ten titles are playing for their first conference win. Penn State is 0-3 in league play and Michigan is 0-2. It is Michigan's homecoming, and the Wolverines have won the last three meetings.

The game likely turns on whether Penn State can score at all. Michigan allows 4.02 yards per play, 2nd of 138. It ranks 6th in EPA allowed per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). Opponents who get inside the 40 come away with 1.93 points per trip, 3rd nationally.

Penn State arrives at its lowest point. Over the last three games against Wisconsin, Northwestern and USC, its offense posted a success rate of 35.4% (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule). It averaged 18.7 points in that stretch. The turn lines up with an injury. Koby Howard had 344 receiving yards in the first three games and has been out since a lower-body injury against Buffalo, and Rocco Becht's deep ball has nearly vanished since. Becht's yards per attempt fell to 6.3 over the last three games, with three interceptions.

The run game can't carry the load. Penn State ranks 113th in line yards per carry, which measures how much push the blockers create, and Michigan ranks 20th in line yards allowed. Matt Campbell said his team "lacked an identity," and Becht said after the USC loss, "We just weren't tough."

Underwood's giveaway problem

Michigan's offense gives Penn State a way back in. The Wolverines average 1.8 turnovers per game, 118th nationally. They score 3.07 points per scoring opportunity, 113th. Penn State's defense takes the ball away 1.5 times per game and has been stingy through the air. It allows 149.8 passing yards per game (6th) and a 26.7% third-down rate (7th).

Bryce Underwood went 10 of 21 for 101 yards with two interceptions in the loss at Minnesota. Kyle Whittingham kept him as the starter and kept Jason Beck calling plays. He added that Tommy Carr could get a series or two if that gives Michigan its best chance. JJ Buchanan is the downfield threat, with 446 yards and four touchdowns. If Underwood keeps forcing throws into a secondary this good, Penn State's short fields could decide the game.

Michigan's best route is the ground

The clearest path for the Wolverines runs straight ahead. Penn State allows 165.8 rushing yards per game, 105th, and ranks 112th in rushing EPA allowed. It also struggles to get into the backfield, with 1.17 sacks per game ranking 119th. That gives Michigan little reason to put the ball in the air.

Jordan Marshall has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over his last three games. The line is patched, though. Right tackle Andrew Sprague is out, and Whittingham called his return "way out there if he comes back." Left tackle Andrew Babalola is back at practice after about a month out, but he is not confirmed for Saturday. If Babalola plays, Michigan can lean on the run and protect Underwood from his own mistakes. Tony Rojas is the Penn State defender to watch: he has 3.0 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss over the last three games.

Hidden yards and the extra week

Penn State's best weapon may be field position. Its offense starts drives at the 32.7-yard line on average, 13th nationally, while Michigan's starts at the 26.7, 113th. Michigan's kick coverage is a real liability, allowing 33.7 yards per return (135th). Penn State's punt coverage is just as poor, allowing 26.0 yards per return, 132nd.

Michigan comes off a bye with 14 days of rest. Penn State has had seven since the USC loss. Penn State was favoured in all three of its losses and failed to cover each time, leaving it 2-4 against the spread. Michigan also lost as the favourite to Iowa and Minnesota.

The line has sat at Michigan -5.5 since it opened, and no total is posted. If the Wolverines cover, history suggests it happens through the run: when the favourite covers, its rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated.

What to watch

• Whether Babalola starts at left tackle.
• Underwood's first-half turnovers against a top-10 pass defense.
• Penn State's kick returns against Michigan's 135th-ranked coverage.
• Whether Becht can stretch the field without Howard.