Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction: Luke Fahey's second start comes against an Oregon offense in freefall
Both teams are missing key players, but Ohio State's front is better built to exploit Oregon's losses than Oregon is to exploit a freshman quarterback.
| Spread | Ohio State -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 45 |
- Expect a grinding game: Ohio State's run defense squeezes a Davison-less Oregon attack while Fahey leans on Jeremiah Smith and the ground game.
- Teitum Tuioti against an Ohio State line with left tackle Ian Moore questionable and a true freshman taking the snaps.
- Our number makes Ohio State a 9.4-point favorite, 1.9 points more than the market's 7.5, and matches the 46.5 total.
Life after Sayin
Both teams arrive in Columbus in must-win territory. No. 11 Ohio State is coming off a loss at USC, and Oregon sits at No. 23 in the College Football Playoff rankings with only a slim path into the field. The last two meetings split: Oregon won 35-28 in Columbus in 2021, and Ohio State won 41-21 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal after the 2024 season.
Ohio State's season was built on Julian Sayin's arm, and Sayin is gone. Ryan Day said he is out "indefinitely" after an elbow injury at Indiana on Oct. 17, and he is expected to miss at least the rest of the regular season. Sayin averaged 10.5 yards per attempt with 19 touchdown passes, which is why the Buckeyes rank 7th in passing EPA (expected points added per play on throws).
True freshman Luke Fahey keeps the job. His first career start ended in a 30-18 loss at USC, where Ohio State reached the red zone four times and came away with 12 points. Day afterward criticized his own staff's support for the young quarterback. Fahey still has the best weapon in the conference: Jeremiah Smith has 1,067 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, caught 10 passes at USC and set the Big Ten career record with his 40th touchdown reception. Oregon's defense is good at keeping offenses off schedule (success rate allowed ranks 24th) but gives up big plays when it breaks, ranking 94th in explosiveness allowed. That is the opening for Smith.
Where the money is on Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oregon Ducks: 64% of bets, 46% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes: 36% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5: 51% of bets, 26% of the money; Oregon Ducks +7.5: 49% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 44.5: 64% of bets, 69% of the money; Under 44.5: 36% of bets, 31% of the money.
Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes stats (this season)
| Stat | Oregon Ducks | Ohio State Buckeyes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-3 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 33.3 (36th of 138) | 36.6 (18th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4 (45th of 138) | 15.5 (11th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 6.12 (43rd of 138) | 6.77 (15th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.17 (44th of 138) | 4.47 (12th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 285.3 (13th of 138) | 315.3 (9th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 138.4 (94th of 138) | 159.5 (62nd of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 36.4% (99th of 138) | 44.2% (34th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.63 (115th of 138) | 1.13 (51st of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 (29th of 138) | 1.38 (44th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.144 (60th of 138) | 0.256 (15th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.007 (32nd of 138) | -0.060 (11th of 138) |
Key players
- Dylan Raiola (Oregon): Threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns in the comeback win over Northwestern, with no interceptions across his last three games.
- Dakorien Moore (Oregon): Leads the Ducks with 41 catches for 545 yards and caught two touchdowns against Northwestern.
- Dierre Hill Jr. (Oregon): Likely carries the load without Davison after averaging 5.5 yards per carry over his last three games.
- Teitum Tuioti (Oregon): Has 4.5 sacks in his last three games, including 2.5 at Illinois.
- Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State): Has 1,067 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns, and caught 10 passes in Fahey's first start.
- Bo Jackson (Ohio State): Ran for 121 yards at USC and carries a bigger share with Ja'Kobi Jackson out.
- Jaylen McClain (Ohio State): Leads this group with 37 tackles and has two interceptions against an Oregon offense prone to turnovers.
Numbers that matter
| Oregon line yards per carry | 2.8 | Ranks 112th, and the Ducks now face a run defense ranked 13th in line yards allowed without their leading rusher. |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State rushing EPA allowed | 9th | One of the country's best run defenses, which pushes a struggling Oregon offense onto Raiola's arm. |
| Ohio State sacks per game | 1.38 | Ranks 112th, so Raiola should have time to throw if the Buckeyes can't manufacture pressure. |
| Oregon turnovers per game | 1.62 | Ranks 115th, a giveaway habit an underdog with a broken run game can't afford. |
| Market spread | -7.5 | Ohio State opened at -14 before the line moved toward Oregon, while our fair number sits at -9.43. |
Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes: quick answers
Who is favored in Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
Ohio State is favored by 7.5 points (Ohio State -7.5).
What is the over/under for Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
The total is 45 points.
When is Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET.
Where is Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes played?
Ohio Stadium.
Where is the money on Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Oregon Ducks: 64% of bets, 46% of the money; Ohio State Buckeyes: 36% of bets, 54% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Ohio State Buckeyes -7.5: 51% of bets, 26% of the money; Oregon Ducks +7.5: 49% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 44.5: 64% of bets, 69% of the money; Under 44.5: 36% of bets, 31% of the money.