Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers prediction: Old Dominion's turnover habit gives Coastal Carolina a clear opening
The Monarchs give the ball away more than any offense in FBS, and Coastal's defense, poor at almost everything else, is built to collect it.
| Spread | Coastal Carolina -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 45 |
- Coastal's passing game builds a lead while Old Dominion's offense stalls behind a line that can't block, giving away field position and possessions.
- Old Dominion's front, ninth nationally in tackles for loss, against a Coastal line that allows havoc on 18.7% of snaps.
- Our number makes Coastal a 7.57-point favorite, slightly above the 6.5 market, with a fair total of 44.19.
The turnover funnel
A year ago Old Dominion beat Coastal Carolina 47-7 in Norfolk. That team is gone. The 2026 Monarchs are 2-7 and rank last in FBS in EPA per play (expected points added per play), the broadest measure of an offense's damage.
The failure runs deep. Old Dominion's success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, sits at 31.3%, last in the country. Its line yards, which credit the blockers for the first few yards of each run, also rank last. Havoc allowed (tackles for loss, sacks, fumbles, interceptions and breakups) hits 26.3% of its snaps, worst in FBS.
All of that ends in giveaways. The Monarchs lose 2.22 turnovers per game, again last nationally. Coastal's defense ranks 117th in success rate allowed and gets pushed around up front, but it takes the ball away at 1.88 per game, ninth in FBS. That is the one skill this matchup asks of it. Old Dominion has averaged 12.7 points over its last three games, including a 0-26 loss at Louisiana Tech.
Henicle's return, Decker's exit
Quinn Henicle may return after missing the last two games, but Old Dominion hasn't confirmed his status. Jaxon Potter made his second start of the season against Marshall, and Old Dominion hasn't confirmed who starts Saturday.
Henicle would add a running threat: 339 rushing yards in six games. His passing has been thin. He threw four touchdowns and four interceptions on the season and averaged 5.1 yards per attempt across his last three appearances. The play-caller has changed too: offensive coordinator Kevin Decker has left for Memphis, and the staff has spent Henicle's absence auditioning backups.
The ground game offers little cover. Devin Roche has averaged 1.6 yards per carry over his last three games. Maurki James supplied a bright spot with the first two-touchdown rushing game of his career. Coastal's run defense ranks 126th in rushing yards allowed, so this is the softest front the Monarchs have seen in weeks. Blocking it remains the problem.
Bailey against a slipping defense
Old Dominion's defense has carried a losing team. It allows 4.85 yards per play, 25th nationally, and ranks 23rd in explosiveness allowed. Its front makes plays behind the line: 7.89 tackles for loss per game, ninth in FBS.
That front is the danger for Coastal. The Chanticleers allow 2.62 sacks per game, 113th, and their havoc allowed ranks 132nd. If Javen Gibson and JaMez Drummer live in the backfield, Coastal's drives stall.
The defense has sagged lately, though. Over the last three games it allowed a 44.2% success rate and 28.3 points per game. Deuce Bailey is the quarterback to take advantage. He has 19 touchdown passes against six interceptions at 8.2 yards per attempt, and he threw for 298 and 297 yards in his last two games. Coastal ranks 43rd in passing EPA, while its rushing EPA ranks 85th. Dominic Knicely managed 32 yards on 12 carries at Georgia State, and Old Dominion's rush defense ranks 23rd in EPA allowed. Expect Coastal to throw.
The hidden-yardage gap
Old Dominion gives away field position the way it gives away the ball. Its opponents start drives at their own 34.3 on average, worst in FBS. Its own offense starts at the 26.7, 125th.
Coastal can widen that gap. The Chanticleers average 18.0 yards per punt return, seventh nationally, against an Old Dominion coverage unit that ranks 99th in return yards allowed. When the Monarchs do get close, they don't finish: they convert 8 of 13 field goals and rank 136th in points per scoring opportunity.
Where the number sits
Coastal opened at -6.5 and hasn't moved across 28 books, with the total at 44.5. It's a new role. The Chanticleers were underdogs in each of their last four listed results and went 2-2 against the spread in them. Old Dominion is 1-8 against the spread this season.
Our model prices Coastal at -7.57, a point beyond the market, with a 25.9-18.3 projected score and a 68% win probability. The fair total of 44.19 sits right on the posted number, so the disagreement is about margin, not pace. Coastal is the favorite here, and a 2-2 Sun Belt record leaves little room to slip.
Where the money is on Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Old Dominion Monarchs: 41% of bets, 50% of the money; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: 59% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -6.5: 66% of bets, 86% of the money; Old Dominion Monarchs +6.5: 34% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 77% of bets, 4% of the money; Under 45.5: 23% of bets, 96% of the money.
Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers stats (this season)
| Stat | Old Dominion Monarchs | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-7 | 3-5 |
| Points per game | 16.8 (135th of 138) | 24.7 (90th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8 (83rd of 138) | 24.7 (72nd of 138) |
| Yards per play | 4.25 (138th of 138) | 5.86 (64th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.85 (24th of 138) | 6.14 (117th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 170.8 (125th of 138) | 243.3 (50th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 97.4 (134th of 138) | 138.3 (96th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 34.1% (114th of 138) | 35.7% (103rd of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 2.22 (138th of 138) | 1.63 (115th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.44 (39th of 138) | 1.88 (9th of 138) |
| EPA per play | -0.178 (138th of 138) | 0.128 (69th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.002 (30th of 138) | 0.131 (97th of 138) |
Key players
- Quinn Henicle (Old Dominion): Listed probable after two missed games, he has 339 rushing yards but averaged 5.1 yards per attempt over his last three appearances.
- Josh Rodriguez (Old Dominion): Caught 9 passes for 143 yards against Marshall, the best receiving game on the roster lately.
- JaMez Drummer (Old Dominion): Has 5.0 tackles for loss over the last three games, the spearhead of a front facing a Coastal line prone to havoc.
- Javen Gibson (Old Dominion): Leads the team with 4.5 sacks, though none in the last three games.
- Deuce Bailey (Coastal Carolina): Has 19 touchdown passes at 8.2 yards per attempt and topped 297 yards in each of his last two games.
- Clayton Coppock (Coastal Carolina): Went for 100 yards and two touchdowns at Georgia State and has five scores this season.
- Dominic Knicely (Coastal Carolina): Averages 5.3 yards per carry but managed 32 yards on 12 carries in his most recent game.
- Mitchell Toney (Coastal Carolina): Has 2.5 sacks over his last three games, the pass rusher most likely to punish Old Dominion's protection.
Numbers that matter
| ODU turnovers per game | 2.22 | Last in FBS, against a Coastal defense ninth in takeaways. |
|---|---|---|
| ODU havoc allowed | 26.3% | Worst in the country; more than a quarter of Monarch snaps end in a negative play or turnover chance. |
| ODU tackles for loss per game | 7.89 | Ninth nationally, the best weapon against a Coastal line that ranks 132nd in havoc allowed. |
| ODU opponents' starting field position | 34.3 | Worst in FBS, handing Coastal short fields. |
| Model fair spread | -7.57 | About a point more on Coastal than the unmoved -6.5 market. |
Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: quick answers
Who is favored in Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers?
Coastal Carolina is favored by 6.5 points (Coastal Carolina -6.5).
What is the over/under for Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers?
The total is 45 points.
When is Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Where is Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers played?
Brooks Stadium (SC).
Where is the money on Old Dominion Monarchs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Old Dominion Monarchs: 41% of bets, 50% of the money; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: 59% of bets, 50% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -6.5: 66% of bets, 86% of the money; Old Dominion Monarchs +6.5: 34% of bets, 14% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 45.5: 77% of bets, 4% of the money; Under 45.5: 23% of bets, 96% of the money.