Ohio State Buckeyes vs Indiana Hoosiers prediction: Jeremiah Smith tests the one crack in Indiana's defense

Where Indiana bends

Indiana has won 22 straight, the nation's longest active streak, and one more would tie Ohio State's CFP-era record of 23. The Buckeyes are the team that can end it, and the market makes them 3-point favourites in Bloomington, even after Indiana beat them 13-10 in last December's Big Ten title game.

The Indiana defense has an odd shape. It ranks 4th in success rate allowed (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule), with opponents succeeding on just 31.8% of snaps. Yet it ranks 132nd of 138 in explosiveness allowed, which measures how much damage the successful plays do. Indiana wins most downs and loses big on the ones it doesn't.

That is the worst profile to bring against Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. Sayin averages 10.9 yards per attempt. He has thrown 17 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. Smith has 916 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, and he torched Illinois for 217 yards. Cignetti called him "a freak" this week. If Indiana's defense holds its usual line on early downs, it still has to survive the two or three shots that Ohio State will take over the top.

The Hoosier ground game

Cignetti's offense leans on the run. Indiana averages 221.3 rushing yards per game, 19th nationally, and gets 3.5 line yards per carry, a measure of the push its offensive line creates before the back is touched. Ohio State's front is stingier than its middling pass rush suggests, allowing 2.6 line yards per carry (27th).

Turbo Richard is the home-run threat at 8.4 yards per carry, but Nebraska bottled him up on 10 yards in his last game. That night Indiana won by punishing a defense loaded to stop the run: Josh Hoover's fourth-and-1 flip to a wide-open Nick Marsh went 44 yards for the winning score. Expect Indiana to try the same trick if Ohio State crowds the line.

Pressure on a patched line

Indiana's pass rush is the best answer to Sayin. The Hoosiers average 3.33 sacks per game, 8th in the country, while Ohio State allows 1.83 per game (78th). Stephen Daley has five sacks in his last three games alone.

Ohio State's line is also unsettled. Right tackle Phillip Daniels has missed four straight games, and Day said he hoped Daniels would be available, though not necessarily as a starter. Austin Siereveld is dealing with a non-football injury and has no timeline. Six starters missed the Maryland game, and Day has said he expects most of them back, though not all. The first Big Ten availability report on Oct. 14 should clarify who plays.

The pressure picture flips on the other side. Ohio State averages 1.5 sacks per game, 102nd nationally, so Hoover should have time to set his feet.

Closer than the record

Indiana's unbeaten record hides some recent strain. The Hoosiers beat Northwestern 29-23 and won 20-17 at Nebraska, and both opponents rank inside SP+'s top 20. Over the last three games the defense allowed 0.071 EPA per play (expected points added), well off its season mark of -0.064. Indiana is 1-5 against the spread, the clearest sign the market has been pricing it ahead of its margins.

Indiana has played the tougher schedule to this point, so some of that slippage reflects better opponents. Ohio State's best result came at Iowa, a 31-14 win that covered the number.

Hidden yards cut both ways

Indiana barely gives the ball away, averaging 0.17 turnovers per game, best in the country. Ohio State was sloppier against Maryland, with eight penalties for 65 yards, and Day called the penalties and turnovers "not the sign of a good team."

The Hoosiers' weakness is the punt. Their 37.5-yard gross average ranks 136th, and in a game this close, a few short fields could matter as much as Indiana's clean ball security.