Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen prediction: Navy's option, and Gutierrez, test Notre Dame's elite run defense

The option against the wall

Navy has run the ball about as well as anyone this fall. On Saturday it faces one of the few defenses built to stop it. Notre Dame is coming off its first loss and a bye, and it has won eight straight in this series. For bettors, the question is whether the Midshipmen can hold the ball long enough to stay inside a 30.5-point number.

Navy averages 307.7 rushing yards per game, 3rd of 138. Its line yards per carry, the rushing credit that goes to the blockers, sit at 3.55, 4th nationally. Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez is the engine, with 872 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Over the last three games he has run for 599 yards and eight scores.

Notre Dame gives up just 67.3 rushing yards per game, 3rd in the country. Its rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) is -0.189, also 3rd, so runs against this defense usually lose value. The concern is depth along the interior. Defensive linemen Christopher Burgess Jr. and Tiki Hola are out. Loghan Thomas is questionable, and Freeman called linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa questionable. Against an option offense, missing bodies up front matter more than usual. Our projection still puts Navy at only 138 rushing yards.

Carr gets a soft secondary

The other side of the ball is less close. Navy allows 0.373 passing EPA per play, 128th nationally, and its explosiveness allowed, the average value of the successful plays opponents make against it, ranks 128th as well. North Texas, UTSA and Tulsa scored freely in Navy's last three games.

CJ Carr is the listed starter and is not on the injury report. He has thrown 16 touchdowns against 1 interception this season. The BYU loss was his worst day: 5.3 yards per attempt and no touchdown passes. Notre Dame's offense wins on efficiency more than big plays. It ranks 2nd in points per scoring opportunity at 5.08, so drives that cross the 40 almost always end in touchdowns. Jonaz Walton's 7.5 yards per carry gives the Irish a second way to move the ball.

Notre Dame will be without cornerback DJ McKinney and safety Brauntae Johnson, and cornerback Mark Zackery IV is questionable with a concussion. Navy throws for only 119.4 yards per game, 135th. Still, Gutierrez's few throws come off play action, and a thin secondary is exactly what that approach goes after.

Where Navy gives away yards

Navy struggles in the areas that rarely show up in a box score. Its offense starts drives at the 25.7-yard line on average, 131st nationally. Its punt coverage allows 22.0 yards per return, also 131st. That weakness was decisive last week: North Texas returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown and added a fumble-return score in the 49-39 win.

Notre Dame protects the ball better than anyone, with 0.29 turnovers per game, 1st nationally. Navy's defense creates 0.57 takeaways per game, 132nd. An option team built to shorten the game needs extra possessions to keep a big underdog close. Nothing in these numbers suggests Navy will get them.

A big number our model accepts

The line opened at Notre Dame -28.5 and has moved to -30.5, and the total sits at 57. The Irish also arrive with 14 days of rest, while Navy had 7 after the North Texas loss. Notre Dame needs a clean, convincing win before Miami comes up next, and the BYU ending is still hanging over the program.

Our model agrees with the market. It makes Notre Dame a 30.4-point favorite and gives Navy a 3.0% chance to win. For the first half, our number is Notre Dame by 17. The one close game in the recent series came in 2022, a 35-32 finish. Notre Dame has won the other recent meetings in blowouts.