Mississippi State Bulldogs vs LSU Tigers prediction: Kamario Taylor's foot hangs over LSU's bid to reset at home

Waiting on the boot

Mississippi State spent its open week waiting on a foot. Kamario Taylor left the Alabama loss in a walking boot on his right foot, and whether he plays in Baton Rouge decides what kind of game this is. LSU, its playoff hopes on life support after an overtime loss at Kentucky, needs that answer to go its way.

Taylor has driven a 4-1 start. He has thrown 17 touchdowns while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt.

He has been limited in practice since that game, and he has been neither cleared nor ruled out. Lebby said Wednesday's SEC availability report would bring an update. If Taylor can't go, freshman Parker Puckett is expected to start. Puckett went 3-of-6 in relief against Alabama. Those throws covered 26 yards.

LSU's rush is waiting

Whoever starts walks into the worst possible matchup for this offense. Mississippi State allows 2.6 sacks per game, 110th in FBS. LSU averages 3.5 sacks, fifth nationally, and Princewill Umanmielen has 8.0 of them himself.

Havoc, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup, tells the same story. LSU's rate of 21.4% ranks eighth. The coverage behind that rush is just as stingy: LSU allows a 31.7% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule), third in the country, and ranks fourth in passing EPA (expected points added per play) allowed.

The Bulldogs live through the air at 309.2 passing yards per game, 11th nationally, so they are pushing straight into the strength of this defense. Anthony Evans III caught 12 passes for 166 yards against Alabama, which shows a healthy Taylor still has a target who can win. A freshman under pressure has far less margin.

Room to run inside

LSU's cleaner edge sits on the other side of the ball. Mississippi State stops runners at or behind the line on just 13.7% of carries, a stuff rate that ranks 131st. The Bulldogs also allow 3.13 line yards per carry (rushing yards credited to the blockers), 106th.

LSU runs for 213.8 yards per game, 26th in FBS. Harlem Berry has averaged 7.5 yards per carry over the last three games, a home-run complement to Dilin Jones and his 483 rushing yards.

Recent form sharpens the gap. LSU's offense posted a 53.1% success rate over its last three. If LSU covers, it probably does so on the ground: in tested games, a favourite covering and its rushing going over its line tend to happen together.

Leavitt's giveaway habit

LSU's own worst enemy is the football. Sam Leavitt leads the country with eight interceptions and has thrown one in every game. Otherwise he has been sharp, completing 75.0% of his passes over the last three games.

LSU commits 1.67 turnovers per game, 110th. That's the opening an underdog needs, though this defense rarely cashes in: Mississippi State forces 0.8 takeaways per game, 116th.

Field position is a quieter LSU flaw. Its net punting average of 34.2 yards ranks 131st of 136. The Bulldogs give some of that back on kickoffs, allowing 28.7 yards per return, 128th.

What the line says

The Tigers have covered just two of six this season, missing in the losses at Ole Miss and Kentucky. Mississippi State is 4-1 against the spread, its only miss the 56-23 loss to Alabama.

The Bulldogs also bring 14 days of rest against LSU's seven. Mississippi State's last win in this series came in 2020 at Tiger Stadium, 44-34. Wednesday's availability report on Taylor matters more to this number than anything else this week.