Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Indiana Hoosiers prediction: Minnesota Can't Run, and Indiana's Front Won't Let It Start

Nowhere to Run

Minnesota has won this fall by refusing to lose: field goals, field position and a defense that strangles third downs. On Saturday in Bloomington that formula faces the No. 4 team in the country, which has an injured quarterback of its own. The Gophers' problem is simple. They can't run the ball, and Indiana doesn't let anyone run it.

Minnesota's offensive line produces 2.22 line yards per carry, a measure of the push it creates on runs, and that ranks 137th of 138. Its rushing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 132nd. Indiana's front allows 2.14 line yards per carry, fourth nationally, and opponents average 73.1 rushing yards a game against it. Darius Taylor has five rushing touchdowns, but he has averaged 1.8 yards per carry over the last three games. Our projection gives Minnesota 33 rushing yards.

That puts the game on Drake Lindsey, and his recent form is heading the wrong way. He has thrown four interceptions in his last three games at 5.8 yards per attempt. His protection has held up: Minnesota allows 1.0 sack per game, 13th in FBS. Indiana, though, sacks quarterbacks 3.5 times a game, fifth nationally. Tobi Osunsanmi leads that rush with 9.0 sacks. Indiana will be without defensive lineman Kellan Wyatt, who hurt his leg against Michigan and is out.

Hoover's Arm Is the Variable

Indiana's season numbers describe a juggernaut. Josh Hoover averages 9.3 yards per attempt and has thrown 18 touchdown passes. The Hoosiers rank fifth in passing EPA, and their defense ranks second in points allowed.

The last three weeks look different. Hoover hurt his arm against Ohio State and completed 50.0% of his passes over that stretch. At Michigan he finished with 81 passing yards, though his five-yard keeper won the game in overtime. Indiana averaged 16.0 points across those three games. That stretch came against Nebraska, Ohio State and Michigan, part of a schedule much tougher than Minnesota's.

Hoover is probable and expected to start. Cignetti said he expects his quarterback "to be fine and better this week," but he also said the passing game "wasn't very good" in practice. The staff discussed playing backup Grant Wilson in the second half at Michigan before sticking with Hoover. Receiver Davion Chandler remains out.

Minnesota's defense can make a limited Hoover pay. It allows 165.1 passing yards per game, 11th nationally, and its havoc rate (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) of 21.7% ranks sixth. Its weak spot is the run: Minnesota ranks 81st in rushing EPA allowed. Turbo Richard averages 6.7 yards per carry this season, and our projection has Indiana running for 169 yards.

Field Goals and Field Position

Minnesota's offense starts its drives on average at the 33.7-yard line, sixth in FBS, and its kicker hasn't missed. The Gophers are 13/13 on field goals, and Luke Drzewiecki beat Iowa with a 46-yarder as time expired. The catch is what happens after those short fields: Minnesota ranks 121st in points per scoring opportunity.

Indiana's kicking is the softer unit. The Hoosiers are 10/15 on field goals, and their extra-point rate ranks 121st. They make up for it by protecting the ball. They commit 0.5 turnovers per game, sixth nationally, and have tied or won the turnover battle in 32 straight games. If Minnesota can't win the turnover battle, its short-field formula has nothing to work with.

Why the Market Fades Indiana

Indiana is 1-7 against the spread and failed to cover in each of its last three games. Minnesota is 5-2 and covered as an underdog at Washington and at home against Michigan and Iowa. The Gophers' one big miss was a 13-41 loss at Purdue as a favorite.

The line opened at Indiana -22.5 and has moved to -20.5, toward Minnesota. Our numbers see it close to the market. We make it Indiana -21.26 with a total of 41.5, the same as the market's, and our fair score is 31.4 to 10.1.

One tested pattern fits this game: when favorites cover, their rushing yardage tends to go over its line too. If Indiana pulls away, it will likely be Richard and Lee Beebe doing it, not Hoover's arm.