Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction: Maryland's red-zone defense could hand Purdue its bowl lifeline
Two slumping offenses and two struggling defenses, but only one of them keeps turning opponents' long drives into touchdowns.
| Spread | Purdue -5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 57 |
- Purdue should win by finishing drives: Maryland's defense ranks 136th in points allowed per scoring chance, and Purdue's kicker is 16 of 17.
- Malik Washington's clean pocket against a Purdue pass defense that ranks 136th in passing EPA allowed.
- Our number makes Purdue a 7-point favorite against a market line of 6, with a fair total of 57.
Where Maryland's defense breaks
Purdue needs this one. Its bowl chances hinge on beating Maryland and then stealing an upset or two. Maryland is 0-5 in the Big Ten and playing for an interim coach, and its defense has a habit of breaking in the one place it can't afford to.
The Terps allow 4.65 points per scoring opportunity, a measure of how many points opponents get from drives that reach the 40-yard line. That ranks 136th of 138 FBS teams. When teams get close, they get touchdowns.
Purdue's offense is average at finishing, 70th in the same stat. It has a safety valve, though: its kicker has made 16 of 17 field goals. Maryland's offense has the opposite problem. It scores 3.15 points per opportunity, 113th, so its long drives too often stall before the end zone.
The trend isn't helping the Terps either. Over their last three games, against Ohio State, Rutgers and Illinois, Maryland allowed 34.0 points per game. In that stretch it gave up 0.245 EPA per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard).
Browne's October slide
Ryan Browne's season line still looks solid at 7.9 yards per attempt. His recent form looks very different. He has completed 47.9% of his passes over the last three games, with four interceptions. At Penn State he went 10 of 29.
Maryland's pass defense is a softer test, ranking 91st in passing EPA allowed. It does have ball hawks. Messiah Delhomme has three interceptions and Jamare Glasker has two, so Browne's turnover habit is a real risk.
Asaad Waseem is the receiver Browne can lean on, with 652 receiving yards this season. De'Nylon Morrissette is cleared to play. Zion Elee is the Maryland rusher to track, with 4.0 sacks.
A clean pocket for Washington
Purdue's pass defense is the weakest unit on the field. It ranks 136th in passing EPA allowed. It also gets very little pressure, averaging 1.25 sacks per game, 115th. Maryland's offensive line is the one part of its offense that reliably works. It allows 1.0 sack per game, 12th nationally.
The question is whether Malik Washington can make use of the time. He has averaged 5.6 yards per attempt over his last three games, and Maryland ranks 124th in passing EPA. Chris Durr Jr. is his steady target, with 58 catches this season. Purdue safety Jaden Mangham is questionable, and defensive lineman Rodney Lora is out. Both absences thin a secondary and a front that were already struggling.
Washington has also declined to commit to returning next season, which adds another unknown to a lame-duck season.
Neither line moves anyone
Neither team can run the ball well. Maryland ranks 118th in line yards per carry, a measure of rushing yardage credited to the offensive line. Purdue ranks 120th.
The difference is on the other side of the ball. Purdue's run defense ranks 132nd in rushing EPA allowed, and Maryland's run defense is merely mediocre. Fame Ijeboi ran for 195 yards against Minnesota and has stalled since, against Washington and Penn State. Our projection still gives Purdue 151 rushing yards. That matters, because in our testing, favorites that cover tend to go over on their rushing lines too.
An interim coach and a 6-point line
Maryland fired Mike Locksley on Oct. 21 after a 2-5 start. Aazaar Abdul-Rahim, the former associate head coach for defense, will coach the final five games. His debut ended with a 20-17 loss to Illinois on the last play. That was a close loss, but it was still a loss.
The line opened at Purdue -6.5 and has moved toward Maryland, to 6. The total sits at 56.5. Both teams are 3-5 against the spread. Purdue has won the last two meetings, including a 31-29 win in 2022.
Where the money is on Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Maryland Terrapins: 34% of bets, 25% of the money; Purdue Boilermakers: 66% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Purdue Boilermakers -5.5: 57% of bets, 26% of the money; Maryland Terrapins +5.5: 43% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 57.5: 69% of bets, 65% of the money; Under 57.5: 31% of bets, 36% of the money.
Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers stats (this season)
| Stat | Maryland Terrapins | Purdue Boilermakers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Points per game | 27.7 (72nd of 138) | 29.4 (58th of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 31.3 (119th of 138) | 32.3 (126th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.50 (95th of 138) | 5.78 (72nd of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 (87th of 138) | 6.63 (132nd of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 237.9 (57th of 138) | 263.4 (28th of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.6 (110th of 138) | 116.5 (118th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 34.9% (111th of 138) | 41.0% (56th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 (51st of 138) | 1.00 (36th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38 (44th of 138) | 1.25 (60th of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.048 (106th of 138) | 0.161 (54th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.139 (103rd of 138) | 0.248 (132nd of 138) |
Key players
- Ryan Browne (Purdue): He has completed 47.9% of his passes with four interceptions over his last three games.
- Fame Ijeboi (Purdue): He leads the team with 9 rushing touchdowns, three of them against Minnesota.
- Asaad Waseem (Purdue): He has 652 receiving yards, including 116 against Washington.
- Curt Neal (Purdue): He had 2.0 sacks at Penn State for a defense that rarely gets home.
- Malik Washington (Maryland): He is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt over his last three games, down from 6.2 for the season.
- Chris Durr Jr. (Maryland): He leads Maryland with 58 catches for 638 yards.
- Zion Elee (Maryland): His 4.0 sacks lead the Maryland pass rush.
- Messiah Delhomme (Maryland): He has three interceptions, a threat to a quarterback who has thrown four in three games.
Numbers that matter
| Maryland points per opportunity allowed | 136th | Opponents that reach the Maryland 40 usually come away with touchdowns. |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue passing EPA allowed | 136th | Washington will face the worst pass defense he has seen in weeks. |
| Maryland sacks allowed per game | 1.0 | That ranks 12th, and Purdue's pass rush is 115th in sacks per game. |
| Browne completion rate, last 3 | 47.9% | Purdue's quarterback is slumping heading into a must-win game. |
| Our fair home spread | -6.95 | About a point more on Purdue than the market's 6. |
Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers: quick answers
Who is favored in Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers?
Purdue is favored by 5 points (Purdue -5).
What is the over/under for Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers?
The total is 57 points.
When is Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET.
Where is Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers played?
Ross-Ade Stadium.
Where is the money on Maryland Terrapins vs Purdue Boilermakers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Maryland Terrapins: 34% of bets, 25% of the money; Purdue Boilermakers: 66% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Purdue Boilermakers -5.5: 57% of bets, 26% of the money; Maryland Terrapins +5.5: 43% of bets, 74% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 57.5: 69% of bets, 65% of the money; Under 57.5: 31% of bets, 36% of the money.