Marshall Thundering Herd vs Old Dominion Monarchs prediction: Old Dominion's last-ranked offense gets a break from Marshall's missing pass rush

An offense with no floor

Old Dominion ranks 138th of 138 in EPA per play (expected points added per play). It also ranks last in success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, at 30.2%. The line is the root of it: 1.84 line yards per carry, also last in FBS. ODU quarterbacks are sacked 4.75 times per game.

The recent form offers no turn. ODU has averaged 8.3 points over its last three games, a stretch that ended with a shutout at Louisiana Tech.

Nobody knows yet who takes the snaps. Quinn Henicle is listed doubtful with an undisclosed injury. Rahne said Monday that Henicle and Ryan Huff were both progressing and that one or both could be ready. Huff has been cleared and is in line to start if Henicle sits. Jaxon Potter, the starter in our projection, went 18-of-34 for 154 yards and an interception in his first start at Louisiana Tech. The Friday or Saturday availability report should settle it.

The opponent offers a reprieve. Marshall averages 0.86 sacks per game, which ranks 135th, and its havoc rate (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) ranks 107th. Marshall's pass defense ranks 134th in passing EPA allowed. A line that has been overrun all season may finally give its quarterback time to throw.

Marshall's three-quarterback plan

Zion Turner left the South Alabama win in the fourth quarter with a lower-body injury, but he is listed as available and expected to start. Gibson also indicated that Marshall will very likely use all three of its quarterbacks: Turner, Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and Khalil Wilkins.

Del Rio-Wilson's problem is ball security. All five of his interceptions this season came in his last three games, including three on six attempts against Coastal Carolina. Wilkins is the change-up, averaging 8.4 yards per carry over his last three games.

The ground game runs into ODU's one real strength. The Monarchs rank 18th in rushing EPA allowed and ninth in tackles for loss at 7.88 per game. Marshall's rushing EPA ranks 103rd. Judah Price shows the range: he ran for 124 yards against Coastal Carolina, then managed 30 on 13 carries against South Alabama before scoring a 5-yard touchdown with 1:49 left to answer a late South Alabama score.

Turnovers and short fields

Both offenses give the ball away 2.0 times per game, tied at 132nd. The difference is on the other side. ODU forces 1.5 takeaways per game, 34th, while Marshall manages 0.86, 111th.

That edge could keep this close, but ODU wastes it with poor field position. Its opponents start drives at the 33.7-yard line on average, the worst mark in FBS.

Neither offense finishes drives well. Marshall scores 2.5 points per scoring opportunity, 132nd, and ODU's 2.15 ranks 135th. Expect a game decided by field goals and one or two short fields, not by long drives.

Where the number sits

Marshall is a 3-point road favorite, the same number it opened at, and the total is 43.5. Neither team has rewarded backers this season: Marshall is 2-5 against the spread and ODU is 1-7.

The schedule favors Marshall. The Herd come in on 11 days of rest, against seven for ODU. ODU's record, however, came against a tougher slate: its FBS opponents average -0.8 in SP+, compared with -5.6 for Marshall's.

Marshall has won every meeting since 2021, including 48-24 last season. Our model expects a much tighter game, 22.9-20.6 for Marshall, and gives ODU a 44.0% chance to win. It sees the first half as close to even, with Marshall favored by 0.46 and a total of 22.75.