Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans prediction: Louisiana Tech's havoc defense hunts a Troy offense in flux
The Sun Belt West leader brings one of the country's most disruptive defenses to Troy, where a new quarterback and a run-first plan face their hardest test.
| Spread | Louisiana Tech -6 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 47.5 |
- Louisiana Tech's defense squeezes Troy's run game, Blake Baker does enough through the air, and shaky kicking on both sides keeps it tighter.
- Troy's ground game against a Tech front that ranks 10th in stuff rate and 10th in line yards allowed.
- Our model makes it Louisiana Tech by 5.5, a half point past the market, with the total matching at 47.5.
A Defense Built on Chaos
Louisiana Tech is 4-0 in the Sun Belt and atop the West, and a win in Troy would all but lock up the division. The Bulldogs got here on defense. Over their last three games they allowed 6.7 points per game, including back-to-back shutouts of UL Monroe and Old Dominion.
The season profile explains it. Tech's 22.0% havoc rate (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) ranks 5th of 138. Its 2.0 takeaways per game also rank 5th. Alonzo Jackson Jr. drives it with 7.0 sacks and 13.0 tackles for loss.
That is a bad draw for Troy. The Trojans allow havoc on 17.3% of plays, 115th nationally. Their passing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 129th, and they convert just 32.8% of third downs, 124th. Over the last three games the offense's success rate (the share of plays that keep it on schedule) sank to 31.2%.
Troy's best weapon is the ground game, which averages 193.9 yards, 27th in the country. Tech answers with a front that allows 2.4 line yards per carry, 10th, and stuffs 24.7% of runs at or behind the line, also 10th. Jaheim Merriweather, at 5.4 yards a carry, is the back most likely to find a crease.
The quarterback spot adds uncertainty. Tucker Kilcrease took the job from Crowder for the Oct. 29 win at James Madison and is positioned to start again, with Crowder listed as probable. Crowder completed 6 of 14 passes in his last start against UL Monroe.
Baker Carries the Offense
Louisiana Tech can't move people up front. Its 2.69 line yards per carry rank 129th, and its rushing EPA ranks 110th. Andrew Burnette has averaged 3.1 yards a carry over the last three games.
So the Bulldogs throw, and they throw well. Blake Baker has completed 71.1% of his passes with 13 touchdowns. He has thrown only 1 interception all season. Over his last three games he averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, and Tech's passing EPA of 0.334 ranks 28th.
Troy's pass defense is middling, 48th in passing EPA allowed, and its 1.75 sacks per game rank 92nd. That matters because Tech's protection is shaky, allowing 2.25 sacks per game. If Troy can't win on the edge, Jalen Mickens (618 yards) and a hot Marcus Calwise Jr. should find room. Calwise has 198 yards and two scores over the last three games.
Kickers Nobody Trusts
The hidden yards cut both ways here. Louisiana Tech has made 5 of 13 field goals, and its 38.5% rate ranks 137th of 138. Troy, at 8 of 15, is 130th. In a game totaled at 47.5, any drive that stalls in field-goal range could swing the number.
Tech offsets some of that with field position. Its average start sits at its own 32.8, 9th nationally, helped by punt returns that rank 11th. Troy's average start of 27.0 ranks 113th, so the Trojans will usually need longer drives. They did find a kicker when it mattered: Hayden Wolfe's 27-yard overtime field goal beat James Madison.
Reading Two Odd Résumés
Tech's streak, its first five-game run since 2019, came mostly against weak teams. UL Monroe ranks 134th in SP+ and Old Dominion 125th. South Alabama, the latest victim, is 116th. The one real test in this stretch, Louisiana in week 6, ended in a 32-31 escape.
Troy is harder to read. It lost at home to UL Monroe 21-14 as a 13.5-point favorite. Then it rallied from a 14-point halftime hole to beat James Madison in overtime, closing as a 17.5-point underdog. Troy also gets 9 days of rest. Tech, meanwhile, is 7-1 against the spread.
Where the Number Sits
Louisiana Tech is a 5-point favorite, unchanged from the open, with the total at 47.5. Our model lands almost exactly there: Tech 26.5, Troy 21.0, with the total matching the market. That gives Troy a 36% chance to win at home. For the first half, our fair line is Tech by 2.7 with a total of 24.6.
Where the money is on Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 60% of bets, 85% of the money; Troy Trojans: 40% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -6.5: 71% of bets, 73% of the money; Troy Trojans +6.5: 29% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 59% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 47.5: 41% of bets, 2% of the money.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans stats (this season)
| Stat | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | Troy Trojans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Points per game | 32.6 (43rd of 138) | 23.0 (102nd of 138) |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 (38th of 138) | 24.4 (68th of 138) |
| Yards per play | 5.88 (61st of 138) | 5.29 (107th of 138) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.05 (35th of 138) | 5.39 (64th of 138) |
| Passing yards per game | 241.9 (53rd of 138) | 176.8 (122nd of 138) |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.0 (84th of 138) | 193.9 (27th of 138) |
| 3rd-down conversion | 43.0% (46th of 138) | 32.8% (124th of 138) |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 (36th of 138) | 1.25 (67th of 138) |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 (5th of 138) | 1.63 (23rd of 138) |
| EPA per play | 0.143 (63rd of 138) | 0.021 (116th of 138) |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.051 (16th of 138) | 0.030 (40th of 138) |
Key players
- Blake Baker (Louisiana Tech): Has 13 touchdown passes against 1 interception and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt over his last three games.
- Jalen Mickens (Louisiana Tech): Leads the Bulldogs with 618 receiving yards on 43 catches.
- Alonzo Jackson Jr. (Louisiana Tech): Anchors the havoc with 7.0 sacks and 13.0 tackles for loss.
- Jadon Mayfield (Louisiana Tech): Has 2.0 sacks over the last three games, both against Old Dominion.
- Jaheim Merriweather (Troy): Averages 5.4 yards per carry with 5 touchdowns and ran for 84 yards at James Madison.
- Will Crowder (Troy): Completed 55.7% of his passes this season before losing the starting job to Tucker Kilcrease.
- Justin Powe (Troy): Intercepted 3 passes in the overtime win at James Madison.
- Donnie Smith (Troy): Troy's top pass rusher with 6.0 sacks, giving him a shot at a Tech line that allows 2.25 per game.
Numbers that matter
| Louisiana Tech havoc rate | 22.0% | Ranks 5th of 138 against a Troy offense that is 115th in havoc allowed. |
|---|---|---|
| Troy passing EPA rank | 129th | Troy can't lean on the pass if Tech's front stalls the run game. |
| Louisiana Tech line yards allowed | 2.4 | Ranks 10th and squares up with Troy's 27th-ranked rushing attack. |
| Louisiana Tech field-goal rate | 38.5% | 137th of 138 on 5 of 13 tries, a real risk for a favorite laying 5. |
| Our fair spread for Troy | +5.5 | A half point beyond the market's 5, so our number and the books agree. |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans: quick answers
Who is favored in Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans?
Louisiana Tech is favored by 6 points (Louisiana Tech -6).
What is the over/under for Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans?
The total is 47.5 points.
When is Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.
Where is Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans played?
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL).
Where is the money on Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs Troy Trojans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 60% of bets, 85% of the money; Troy Trojans: 40% of bets, 15% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -6.5: 71% of bets, 73% of the money; Troy Trojans +6.5: 29% of bets, 27% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 47.5: 59% of bets, 98% of the money; Under 47.5: 41% of bets, 2% of the money.