Kent State Golden Flashes vs South Florida Bulls prediction: Kent State needs big plays; South Florida almost never allows them

Where Kent State's points hide

South Florida has lost two straight, and first-year coach Brian Hartline is looking to steady things. The visitor should offer relief: Kent State sits 132nd of 138 in SP+. The open question is whether the Golden Flashes can produce the one thing their offense does well.

That thing is the big play. Kent State's success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, is 33.3%, which ranks 134th. Yet its explosiveness, the average value of its successful plays, ranks 34th. This is an offense that goes nowhere for long stretches, then hits something.

USF is built to take that away. The Bulls allow an explosiveness figure of 1.0, 5th nationally. Wayne Harris is the man Kent State needs loose; he caught 11 passes for 164 yards at Western Michigan. If USF keeps everything in front of it, an offense scoring 13.7 points per game (137th) has no other path.

Crowther against a soft middle

D.J. Crowther carries the USF offense. He has 476 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, and he took at least 20 carries in each of the last three games.

Kent State's defence gives him plenty to work with. It allows a 47.1% success rate, 128th in the country, and line yards allowed (the rushing yards credited to the offensive line) of 3.17 per carry, 112th. Expect the Bulls to lean on Crowther early and often.

The matchup on the other side is lopsided too. Kent State's line produces 2.7 line yards per carry (120th), while USF's stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 22.8%, 28th. Mason Blakemore averaged 3.0 yards per carry over the last three games. Kent State will likely be throwing on second and long.

A Bulls offense stuck in neutral

The concern for USF is its own recent form. The Bulls averaged 17.0 points over their last three games, including a home loss to Temple by 13-17. Michael Van Buren Jr. has protected the ball, with no interceptions all season, but he averaged 6.0 yards per attempt over that stretch.

This offense moves methodically. Its success rate ranks 35th, but its explosiveness ranks 122nd, so drives need many plays to finish. We have no confirmed report on either starting quarterback this week.

USF does get the rest edge, with nine days off against Kent State's seven. And the Bulls' 4-2 record came against a soft slate, an average opponent SP+ of -6.0, while Kent State's schedule included a trip to top-ranked Ohio State.

Hidden yards favour the Bulls

The quieter categories tilt hard toward the home side. USF commits 35.0 penalty yards per game, 8th fewest in the country; Kent State gives away 77.5, 128th.

Kent State also struggles to cash in. It scores 2.25 points per scoring opportunity (132nd) and has made only 3/7 field goals. USF's net punting of 43.8 yards ranks 24th, against 37.6 for the Golden Flashes, so the field should keep tilting toward Kent State's end.

This is the first-ever meeting between the programs, in USF's final season at Raymond James Stadium before its on-campus stadium opens.

What to watch

• Harris downfield: if Kent State can't land a few long completions, its drives will stall.
• Crowther's workload: another 20-carry night would signal USF controlling the clock and the game.
• Kent State in the red zone: missed kicks and stalled drives have defined its season.