Kansas State Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes prediction: Kansas State's quarterback carousel gives slumping Colorado a real opening

Third quarterback, third week

Kansas State's season now hinges on a question nobody in Manhattan can answer yet. Avery Johnson is out for a second straight game. Jacob Knuth, who started last week, is doubtful with an ankle injury. If Knuth can't play, junior Blake Barnett is in line to start, which would likely make him the Wildcats' third different starter in as many weeks.

Even that plan is shaky. Barnett was reportedly on crutches Wednesday, though that is unconfirmed. The other option, Dillon Duff, has never appeared in a college game.

Knuth's debut at Arizona State showed how much this offense misses Johnson. He completed 26 of 41 passes. Those went for 194 yards and a touchdown, and he added a rushing score, but K-State still lost 28-17. Over its last three games, the offense has produced 0.032 EPA per play (expected points added per play). Its season mark is 0.192.

The market has noticed. Colorado opened as a 3.2-point underdog and is now a 1.5-point favorite.

The run game decides it

K-State's identity is on the ground. The Wildcats average 217.6 rushing yards per game, 14th of 138. They also lead with the quarterback run, and Johnson's 462 rushing yards leave with him. That shifts weight onto Rodney Fields Jr. and Joe Jackson. Jackson ran for 159 yards against Kansas, then managed 17 at Arizona State.

Colorado's front will make that hard. The Buffaloes rank sixth in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, at 26.5%. Their defense is 26th in rushing EPA allowed and sixth in tackles for loss per game.

The matchup flips when Colorado has the ball. The Buffaloes are 130th in rushing EPA, so they can barely move the ball on the ground. Still, K-State's run defense ranks 108th in rushing EPA allowed. If Colorado finds any ground game, it takes pressure off a passing attack that has been throwing the ball to the other team.

Colorado's self-inflicted wounds

Colorado has lost five straight, and much of the damage is its own. The Buffaloes commit 2.29 turnovers per game, 137th of 138. They give up 84.3 penalty yards per game, 135th. At Oklahoma State, they were flagged 11 times for 84 yards and turned it over three times in a 57-24 loss.

Isaac Wilson is the expected starter, and he carries both sides of that story. He threw seven interceptions over his last three games while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. He went 14 of 16 before halftime in Stillwater, then the second half fell apart.

Here is Colorado's break: K-State barely forces turnovers. The Wildcats average 0.57 takeaways per game, 132nd nationally. Their pass defense allows just 147.1 yards per game, fifth in the country, but ranks 135th in explosiveness allowed. That means the passes it does give up tend to be big ones. Joseph Williams, who had 135 yards at Oklahoma State, is the receiver best placed to find them.

Hidden yards favor the visitors

Special teams tilt toward Kansas State. The Wildcats have made all 11 field goals this season. Colorado has made 5 of 9, which ranks 129th.

Field position has also buried the Buffaloes. Their average drive starts at the 25.7, 131st nationally. Opponents start at the 32.1, 134th. Colorado also converts scoring chances poorly, ranking 130th in points per scoring opportunity. A short-handed K-State offense can live on short fields and sure kicks.

Where the number lands

Colorado's record looks worse than the team. The Buffaloes' FBS opponents average an SP+ of 11.6, against 0.5 for K-State's. That schedule includes a 3-point loss to Utah as a 15-point underdog. Kansas State has won the last two meetings, including a 31-28 win in Boulder on a late Johnson touchdown pass.

Our model sees this game as nearly even. It makes Colorado a 0.2-point favorite with a 51% win probability, a little closer to Kansas State than the market. Our total of 47.05 matches the posted 47.