Kansas Jayhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction: Kansas Must Run Through TCU's Stout Front to End Fort Worth Drought

The Stakes in Fort Worth

Both teams are 3-4, both are 1-3 in the Big 12, and both head coaches are feeling heat. Sonny Dykes sits atop hot-seat rankings after a home loss to West Virginia, and TCU's bowl hopes ride on Saturday. Kansas hasn't won in Fort Worth since 1996. To change that, it has to do what TCU's defense stops best: run the football.

Where the Jayhawks Live

Kansas is a running team that also throws. The Jayhawks average 207.4 rushing yards per game, 20th in FBS. Their rushing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 11th. They rank 12th in line yards, which credit blockers for the first few yards of each carry. Isaiah Marshall is a big part of it, and he ran for 117 yards at Kansas State.

TCU's run defense is built for this. The Frogs rank 7th in rushing EPA allowed. Their success rate allowed, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, is 33.6%, sixth nationally. They also rank 7th in explosiveness allowed, so the big gains that fuel Kansas are hard to find here.

The passing game is a shaky fallback. Marshall completes 53.6% of his passes, and TCU ranks 9th in passing yards allowed. Kansas will also be without tight end Jack Utz and running back Jalen Dupree, and lineman Kasen Carpenter is listed out. Marshall is probable and expected to start.

Craig Against a Thin Secondary

TCU's offense runs through Jaden Craig. He has 2,066 passing yards at 8.6 yards per attempt, and TCU ranks 11th in passing yards per game. Jordan Dwyer has 363 receiving yards in three games.

Kansas's pass defense allows few yards, but it gives up big plays: it ranks 104th in explosiveness allowed. The secondary is short-handed, with corner Syneed Gibbs and safety Mason Ellis listed out and two more defensive backs questionable. Over the last three games, opponents posted a 47.3% success rate against Kansas.

Protection is TCU's weak point. The Frogs allow 2.86 sacks per game, 123rd in FBS. Kansas doesn't bring much pressure as a team, but Leroy Harris III has 2.5 sacks in his last three games.

TCU Can't Lean on the Ground

Leading rusher Jeremy Payne is doubtful and expected to miss a second straight game, and backup Landon Walker is questionable. That leaves the run game even thinner than before. TCU ranks 129th in rushing EPA and 117th in line yards. Kansas stuffs runs at or behind the line 24.4% of the time, 12th in FBS, so expect plenty of obvious passing downs for Craig.

The bigger problem is finishing. TCU scores 3.06 points per scoring opportunity, 118th, and that is how a defense allowing 13.9 points per game ends up with a losing record. Field position should help the Frogs, though. Kansas's opponents start drives at the 31.6-yard line on average, 130th, and Kansas allows 37.2 yards per kick return, 136th of 137.

Market and Our Number

TCU opened at -5.5 and has moved to -6, with the total at 46.5. Our model has TCU by 6.5 with a 46.7 total and gives the Frogs a 66% chance to win. That leaves almost no gap with the market. Our first-half number has TCU -3.8. Kansas is 2-5 against the spread this season, and TCU has won the last five meetings listed between the two.