Illinois Fighting Illini vs Maryland Terrapins prediction: Illinois can't rush the passer. Can Malik Washington make it hurt?

A pocket with no pressure

Maryland fired its defensive coordinator and then its head coach within days of each other, then got two full weeks to regroup. It comes back on Halloween against an Illinois team chasing bowl eligibility. Illinois has a freshman quarterback, an interim defensive play-caller and a head coach whose father died Sunday. The game will likely be decided by whether Maryland's quarterback can use the time Illinois gives him.

Illinois averages 1.0 sacks per game, 131st in FBS. Its havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup, ranks 122nd. Quarterbacks have feasted: Illinois ranks 116th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play).

Maryland protects well, allowing 1.0 sacks per game, which ranks 13th. Clean pockets haven't fixed its passing game, though. The Terps rank 126th in passing EPA. Malik Washington has completed 50.5% of his throws over his last three games, at 5.4 yards per attempt. That run came against Nebraska, Ohio State and Rutgers. Chris Durr Jr. is his one reliable outlet, with 268 yards in that stretch. Two other receivers, Ryan Manning and Sean Williams, are questionable. If Washington can't punish this secondary, it's hard to see where Maryland's points come from.

New faces on both sidelines

Katin Houser broke his hand Oct. 10, and freshman Michael Clayton II has started since. That includes the comeback against Oregon, when Illinois scored the final 21 points. Illinois has protected the ball all year, at 0.71 turnovers per game, 19th in FBS. Clayton will have to keep that up on the road. Receiver Jayshon Platt is doubtful after a practice setback. Linebacker Grant Beerman and offensive lineman Kai Pritchard are out for the season.

Illinois' defense has changed hands, too. Bobby Hauck is gone as coordinator, and Roger Cooper is calling the defense. Mike Locksley was let go after a 2-5 start, and former co-defensive coordinator Aazaar Abdul-Rahim takes over the rest of the season, auditioning for the full-time job. The Terps are on a five-game losing streak and have had 14 days to reset, against Illinois' seven.

Laughery and the Illini front

Illinois runs behind a line that creates push. It gains 3.38 line yards per carry, a measure of the yards the offensive line itself is responsible for, which ranks 21st. Maryland's run defense is middling, 87th in rushing EPA allowed. Aidan Laughery averages 6.9 yards per carry and ran for 123 yards on 13 carries against Oregon, including a 75-yard touchdown.

The recent trend favors Illinois. Over the last three games, the Illini have kept 43.6% of their plays on schedule. Maryland's success rate over its last three is 30.8%. One threat for a young quarterback is Zion Elee, who has three sacks in his last three games. Illinois allows havoc on just 11.3% of its snaps, 13th in FBS, so its line should give Clayton cover.

Where drives end

Maryland's defense breaks late. It allows 4.79 points per scoring opportunity, 136th in FBS, so drives that reach its 40 usually end in touchdowns. Its own offense stalls in the same area: 3.19 points per opportunity ranks 116th.

Third down tilts the same way. Illinois converts 45.8%, 29th, while Maryland converts 33.7%, 117th. Collin Dixon has 10 touchdown catches and is the target when Illinois needs a score.

The kicking game adds another edge. Illinois averages 24.5 yards per punt return, third nationally. Maryland nets 36.0 yards per punt, 125th. A couple of short fields could decide a game priced this tightly.

What the number says

Illinois is a 2.5-point favorite. The line opened with Maryland at +3.2 and has drifted toward the Terps, with the total at 54.5. Our model lands exactly on the market at Illinois by 2.5, with a fair total of 54.7 and Maryland winning 44% of the time. If Illinois covers, it probably does so on the ground. In our testing, a favorite's rushing yards go over their line 33.9% of the time when the favorite covers.