Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Virginia Tech Hokies prediction: Virginia Tech's run-stuffing front dares Mendoza to win through the air

Running into the wall

Two coaches meet as head coaches for the first time at a sold-out Homecoming, and both teams badly need this one. Whoever solves Virginia Tech's front first probably wins it.

The Hokies have the most disruptive run defense in the country. They allow 1.13 line yards per carry, first of 138 FBS teams; line yards measure the push an offensive line gets on runs. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 36.6%, also first. They rank second in havoc rate, the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.

Georgia Tech isn't built to bully that front. The Jackets rank 102nd in rushing yards per game and 91st in line yards. Justice Haynes has slowed each week, down to 69 yards against Duke. Trelain Maddox has been the finisher instead, and he scored the go-ahead touchdown against Duke with 54 seconds left.

Mendoza's opening

The soft spot is behind the Hokies' front. Virginia Tech ranks 88th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per dropback) and 113th in explosiveness allowed. Completions against this defense tend to go a long way.

Alberto Mendoza is throwing well enough to take advantage. Over his last three games he has completed 71.1% of his passes at 8.2 yards per attempt. He has six touchdowns and one interception in that stretch. Jordan Allen was his go-to target against Duke, with 10 catches for 99 yards.

Protection is the question. The Hokies average 3.17 sacks a game, 11th nationally, and Aycen Stevens leads them with 5.5. Georgia Tech allows 1.8 sacks a game, which ranks 72nd.

Grunkemeyer gets time

The same plan works from the other side. Georgia Tech ranks 116th in passing EPA allowed and 117th in sacks per game, so Ethan Grunkemeyer should see clean pockets. He completes 73.1% of his throws with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. Virginia Tech throws for 310.2 yards a game, ninth nationally.

The Hokies' line is the worry. Left tackle Justin Terry has been out since the Maryland game, and expected starter Johnny Garrett hasn't played this season. Virginia Tech ranks 108th in line yards per carry, so the run game may not help much. Third downs are where Grunkemeyer can do damage: Georgia Tech allows a 45.3% conversion rate, 120th.

Records that mislead

Virginia Tech is 4-2 but sliding. The Hokies lost 35-33 to Pittsburgh, then lost 25-20 at California, where Cal scored with 18 seconds left. Their offense has managed 0.069 EPA per play over the last three games, against 0.21 for the season. They failed to cover as the favourite in all three.

Georgia Tech's recent form looks better than it is. The Jackets posted 0.354 EPA per play over their last three, but that run includes FCS Mercer and a loss at Stanford, which ranks 125th in SP+. Even so, they have played the tougher slate: their FBS opponents average 1.9 in SP+, against -1.8 for Virginia Tech's. Brent Key called his team "near rebuilding" after a 1-3 start, and the Jackets won last year's meeting 35-20.

What to watch

• Kick returns: Georgia Tech averages 33.2 yards per kick return, ninth nationally, a way to get short fields against a stout defense.
• Hokies punting: Virginia Tech's net punting ranks 111th, which could hand those short fields over anyway.
• Takeaways: Georgia Tech forces 0.4 turnovers a game, 136th, so expect few gifts for its offense.
• Reinforcements: The Jackets hope to get Jordan Walker and Noah Carter back after both missed the Duke game.