Florida State Seminoles vs Miami Hurricanes prediction: Florida State's run game runs into Miami's wall with Norvell's job looming

Daniels' legs against the wall

Florida State's best chance runs through the ground game, and Miami's defence is built to stop exactly that. The Seminoles rank 8th nationally in rushing EPA (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap helps the scoreboard). Their line yards per carry, which credits the push the offensive front creates, rank 17th.

Ashton Daniels drives it. The quarterback has 10 rushing touchdowns this season. Five came in the 38-7 win over Virginia, a record for a Florida State quarterback. Ousmane Kromah adds 565 yards at 5.7 a carry.

Miami allows 42.6 rushing yards a game, best in FBS. Its line yards allowed rank 9th, and its stuff rate (the share of runs stopped at or behind the line) ranks 16th. If the Seminoles fall behind the chains, the game shifts onto Daniels' arm. He has thrown 7 interceptions this season.

One caveat cuts toward Florida State. Miami's FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of -4.7, while Florida State's sit at 8.7. The Hurricanes' defensive numbers were partly built against soft competition, including a Central Michigan team ranked 127th.

Mensah hasn't blinked

Darian Mensah is completing 84.2% of his passes. He has 15 touchdown passes and has not thrown an interception. Miami ranks first in passing EPA and first in success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule.

The Florida State defence hasn't stopped much. It ranks 110th in EPA allowed per play and 114th in passing yards allowed. Malachi Toney, with 604 receiving yards, is the obvious beneficiary.

The Seminoles' one real weapon is the pass rush. They average 3.0 sacks a game, 13th nationally, and Rylan Kennedy has 4 sacks over his last three games. Miami's protection has rarely been tested: its havoc allowed, the share of plays ending in a sack, tackle for loss, turnover or pass breakup, ranks 3rd. The bye came as Miami dealt with a run of injuries along the offensive line and in the secondary, which is the thread worth pulling if Kennedy gets home early.

Protection is the other leak

Florida State gives up 2.67 sacks a game, which ranks 116th. Miami averages 3.2 sacks, 9th nationally. That gap is wide, and it gets wider on passing downs.

Marquise Lightfoot leads Miami with 5 sacks, and Mario Cristobal said he is back for this week. Damon Wilson Jr. had 2.5 sacks against Clemson alone. The Louisville loss showed what happens when Daniels has to throw: 37 attempts at 5.6 yards each, as the Cardinals scored 35 straight points after Florida State led early.

Rest, road and Norvell's seat

Miami comes off a bye with 14 days of rest, against 8 for Florida State. The Louisville defeat was the Seminoles' 11th straight loss away from Tallahassee. Miami, unbeaten and No. 3 in the AP poll, plays its first conference home game of the season against its oldest rival.

The pressure sits on the other sideline. Mike Norvell said he has had no recent conversations with the administration about his status, and a midseason change appears unlikely but not ruled out. Bruce Warwick is interim athletic director after Michael Alford was fired last month. Florida State, at 3-3, needs to win three more games to reach a bowl.

The market has leaned one way. Miami opened at -19.5 and now sits at -20.5. The Hurricanes are 4-1 against the spread; Florida State is 2-3-1. Miami has won the last two meetings, including a 28-22 win in Tallahassee last season.

What to watch

• Early downs for Florida State: if Daniels and Kromah can't move Miami's front on first down, the sack numbers take over.
• Kennedy against a banged-up Miami line: the Seminoles' clearest path to a short field.
• Miami's secondary health: cornerback Xavier Lucas is listed as undisclosed, and Miami hopes to have him back.