Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs prediction: Florida's unnamed quarterback faces Gunner Stockton and Georgia's red-zone machine

Florida's quarterback riddle

For the first time in decades, Florida and Georgia settle their rivalry in Atlanta instead of Jacksonville. Two days out, the Gators still haven't named a quarterback. Georgia has won five straight in the series, and the last one, 24-20, was the closest.

Aaron Philo hurt his shoulder and missed the win at Texas. Tramell Jones Jr. stepped in for his first career start and threw two touchdown passes to Lacota Dippre. That 27-24 upset came with Florida as a 12.5-point underdog. Both quarterbacks are listed questionable, and both practiced this week. "So, we'll make a decision in the middle of the week, a final decision," first-year coach Jon Sumrall said. If neither can go, redshirt junior Aidan Warner is next, then true freshman Will Griffin.

Our projection lists Jones as the starter. Philo's form had already cooled before the injury: he averaged 9.0 yards per attempt for the season but 7.3 over his last three games.

Stockton against a soft secondary

Whoever starts for Florida will be chasing an offense that ranks 2nd nationally in passing EPA (expected points added per play). Gunner Stockton completes 74.1% of his throws. Florida's pass defense ranks 121st in passing yards allowed, and it is also 121st on third down.

The bigger problem is what happens close to the goal line. Georgia ranks 1st in points per scoring opportunity. Florida's defense ranks 126th in points allowed per opportunity. That combination turns long drives into touchdowns instead of field goals.

The Gators' best hope is Stockton's recent carelessness. He threw three interceptions over his last three games, and his fumble with 58 seconds left set up Auburn's walk-off field goal in the 27-24 loss. Georgia's depth is thinner too: WR Thomas Blackshear is out, WR Isiah Canion is questionable after missing four games, and safety KJ Bolden is questionable with a lower-leg issue.

Where Florida can fight back

Florida's defense can wreck plays. The Gators rank 7th in sacks per game and 17th in havoc rate (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup). Myles Graham has 3.0 sacks over his last three games. Georgia's line has held up well, though, ranking 22nd in sacks allowed.

Florida's own run game is the worry. Jadan Baugh has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over his last three games. The line ranks 98th in line yards per carry, a measure of the push the blockers create, and Georgia ranks 8th in rushing EPA allowed. Duke Clark was upgraded to questionable. WR Bailey Stockton is doubtful, while Vernell Brown is probable after missing three games with a knee strain.

Form, schedule and hidden yards

Florida's last three games look ugly. The Gators averaged 21.0 points and allowed 35.7, with an offensive success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) of 36.5%. Context matters, though. Florida's FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of 10.6, against 4.1 for Georgia's, so the Gators have played the tougher schedule.

Florida also gives away yards. Its penalty yardage ranks 126th. The Gators can win some of that back on punts: they rank 2nd in punt return average, though their own punt coverage ranks 133rd.

What the number says

The line opened at Georgia -10.5 and has moved to -12.5, with the total at 55.0. Our model agrees almost exactly, with Georgia by 12.8 and a total of 55. It gives Georgia a 79% chance to win and makes the Bulldogs 6.9-point favorites in the first half. If Georgia covers, its ground game is the likeliest reason. In our testing, favorites that cover tend to run past their rushing number.