Cincinnati Bearcats vs West Virginia Mountaineers prediction: Cincinnati's ground game runs into a West Virginia defense in freefall

Two run games, one wall missing

Both offenses are built on the ground. West Virginia runs for 295.5 yards a game, 4th of 138, and Cincinnati is not far behind at 230.8, 13th.

The difference is on the other side of the ball. West Virginia's front is not the problem: its stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, is 22.5%, 33rd nationally.

That sets up Cam Cook. He has 793 yards on 153 carries this season and 476 over his last three games, including 193 against Oklahoma State. Hawkins adds a second threat with 672 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. If Cincinnati can't win at the point of attack, West Virginia can shorten this game on its own terms.

Morgantown's secondary problem

West Virginia's pass defense is among the worst in the sport. It allows 297.0 passing yards a game, 136th of 138, and 0.439 passing EPA per dropback, 130th. The last three games have been worse still: 46.0 points allowed per game, with opponents succeeding on 51.3% of plays. Rich Rodriguez spent part of this week voicing his frustration with the defense's continued struggles.

Cincinnati doesn't throw much, ranking 98th in passing yards per game, but it throws cleanly. JC French IV is the only Big 12 starter yet to throw an interception, completing 69.9% of his passes. JaVonnie Gibson is the downfield option with 267 yards on 18 catches. Cole Tabb is the wild card: 9.7 yards per carry, six rushing touchdowns, and 83 receiving yards out of the backfield. A defense that can't cover will struggle with a back who does both.

Hawkins and the accuracy question

Hawkins is a big-play passer more than a precise one. He has completed 52.3% of his throws this season, and just 43.8% over his last three, but averages 9.5 yards per attempt. DJ Epps fits that profile with 393 yards on only 14 catches.

Cincinnati's pass defense invites the shot plays. It allows 260.0 passing yards a game, 125th, and lets opponents convert 45.6% of third downs, 121st. The depth chart lists Hawkins and Scotty Fox with an "or" at quarterback, though Hawkins has played every game and no injury has been reported.

Rest against a losing streak

Cincinnati comes in with 14 days of rest after a bye; West Virginia has seven.

Where the hidden yards go

The kicking game cuts both ways. Cincinnati has made just 3 of 5 field goals, while West Virginia is perfect at 5 of 5. But the Bearcats flip the field better: their net punting ranks 7th, and opponents start drives at their own 24.3-yard line on average, 6th in the country. Add a turnover rate of 0.4 per game, 6th nationally, and Cincinnati rarely hands out short fields.