Charlotte 49ers vs Temple Owls prediction: Charlotte's 15-game skid runs straight into Temple's ground game

The Owls run, Charlotte bends

Temple builds its offense on the ground. The Owls average 201.8 rushing yards per game, 33rd in FBS. Their line generates 3.38 line yards per carry (a measure of the push up front on each run), which ranks 25th.

Charlotte's front gives way. The 49ers allow 184.0 rushing yards per game, 118th nationally. They rarely blow plays up in the backfield either: their havoc rate (share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) ranks 133rd.

The backfield is thinner this week. Keeler said Sam Brown has a high-ankle sprain and will sit, removing a back who averaged 8.2 yards per carry in his limited action. Keveun Mason takes the lead role with 449 rushing yards on the season. Starting left tackle Giakoby Hills has also been sidelined with a lower-body injury, and Keeler said roughly two weeks ago that he was about three weeks from returning.

Sheppard or Smolik

Ajani Sheppard has made a strong case to keep the job. He has thrown 7 touchdown passes without an interception. His yards per attempt has climbed to 10.1 over his recent stretch, up from 9.2 for the season.

He also gives Temple a second runner. Sheppard has 261 rushing yards, and his 34-yard touchdown run late at USF won that game.

Jaxon Smolik's foot is no longer the issue. Keeler said Smolik should be back at 100 percent and available Saturday. The open question is usage, because Temple may change course at quarterback, and no starter has been announced. After the UConn loss, Keeler called his group "a bad football team right now." Either way, Temple won't be relying heavily on the pass. The Owls rank 122nd in passing yards per game.

Charlotte's offense has stalled

Charlotte ranks 138th of 138 in SP+, and the offense is the biggest reason. The 49ers averaged 8.3 points across their recent games against Louisiana, Memphis and North Texas.

They can't stay on schedule. Charlotte converts 26.7% of its third downs, 137th in FBS. Its success rate (share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) ranks 132nd. It also gives the ball away 2.5 times per game, the worst mark in the country.

The quarterback spot is murky. Cole Gonzales has 3 touchdown passes against 7 interceptions. Reports conflict on whether he or Conner Harrell started at North Texas, and Charlotte hasn't named a starter for Saturday.

The one spark is Henry Rutledge. He has 163 rushing yards recently, most of it from a 111-yard day against Memphis.

Where the 49ers can hang around

Temple's defense gives opponents room to work. Opponents convert 48.7% of third downs against the Owls, 133rd in FBS. Temple's havoc rate ranks 137th and its stuff rate ranks 126th, so offenses rarely lose yards against this front.

That gives Charlotte a path to sustained drives if its quarterback can protect the ball. The 49ers have done it once this season. They lost 26-21 at App State as a 16-point underdog, which was good enough to cover. In the games since, they haven't covered.

Temple has been more reliable against the number, going 4-1-1 against the spread this season. Its lone failure to cover came in its only game as a favourite, a 34-20 loss to UConn.

Hidden yards favor Temple

Field position tilts toward the home side. Charlotte's opponents start drives at their own 32.9 on average, 136th in FBS, a result of all those turnovers. Temple protects the ball at 1.0 turnover per game, and its 32.7 penalty yards per game rank seventh.

The series history also favors Temple. The Owls are 3-0 against Charlotte and have scored at least 37 points in every meeting, including a 49-14 win last season. Charlotte's losing streak now stands at 15 games.