Boston College Eagles vs Duke Blue Devils prediction: Mason McKenzie's legs run into Duke's stingiest wall in Durham

The run game Duke must stop

Boston College found an identity over the last two weeks, and it lives on the ground. The Eagles run for 181.0 yards per game, 43rd nationally. In the 49-27 win at Georgia Tech, Mason McKenzie ran for 170 yards and two touchdowns, and Bo MacCormack III added 155 yards and three scores.

The recent surge is real. Over the last three games the offense produced 0.2 EPA per play (expected points added, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). The season figure ranks 100th. MacCormack now carries the backfield alone, because Evan Dickens suffered a season-ending knee injury.

Duke is built to blunt exactly this. The Blue Devils allow 107.1 rushing yards per game, 25th, and rank 16th in rushing EPA allowed. Their front allows 2.65 line yards per carry, 27th. Line yards measure the push a blocking unit gets near the line of scrimmage. Boston College's own line ranks 79th in that stat, so much of its production comes from McKenzie's improvisation rather than clean push. If Duke keeps him in the pocket, the Eagles have to throw, and their passing offense ranks 102nd in yards per game.

Eget's pocket against BC's pressure

Walker Eget hurt his finger in the first quarter at Virginia and played through it. Manny Diaz said Monday that Eget "should be good to go." The bigger question is who he throws to. Receivers Jamien Little and Qeanu Johnson are out, and Jeremiah Hasley is questionable and at risk of missing his first game of the season.

Protection has been Duke's quiet strength. The Blue Devils allow 0.43 sacks per game, second in the country, and rank 11th in havoc allowed. Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. That protection faces a test this week, because three offensive linemen are out: Kai Jacobowitz, Reagan McCranie and Roman Fina.

Boston College's defense lives in the backfield. It averages 6.71 tackles for loss per game, 19th, and Demetrius Ballard has 2.5 sacks in his last three games. Duke's offense has also cooled. It scored 21.3 points per game over its last three, and Nate Sheppard's yards per carry dropped to 3.7 in that stretch. Sheppard has adapted by catching 20 passes for 200 yards over those three games.

Turnovers and hidden yards

Duke rarely gives the ball away. It averages 0.57 turnovers per game, seventh nationally. That collides with a Boston College defense taking away 1.86 per game, 14th. Charlie Comella has three interceptions in his last three games.

McKenzie's risk runs the other way. He has thrown 7 interceptions this season, and a short field off a pick is the cleanest path to a Duke cover.

Special teams lean toward the home side. Boston College ranks last of 136 in net punting at 32.6 yards. It also ranks 136th in extra-point percentage. Duke's opponents start drives at their own 25.2-yard line on average, 11th-best. One caution: Duke kicker Cosme Salas is out.

Schedule and the number

Boston College's record came against tougher opposition. The average SP+ of its FBS opponents is 5.2, compared with -0.6 for Duke's. The Eagles are 5-2 against the spread and covered as underdogs in all four of their most recent games. Duke lost 25-28 at Georgia Tech as a favorite, the same team Boston College just beat by 22.

The market has drifted slightly toward Boston College, from Duke -7.5 at the open to -7 now. Our model sits at Duke -8.25 with a 70% win probability, so it leans the other way. Its fair total of 48.05 is close to the posted 48.5. If Duke does cover, it likely does so on the ground. The model projects 175 rushing yards for the Blue Devils, and covering favorites tend to clear their rushing lines.